Summary：
This week (Jan 27-Feb 2), the domestic pesticides, fertilizers and raw materials market presented a pattern of "stable growth with structural differentiation" driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking, international demand and policy regulation. Pesticide technical materials were in tight supply with firm prices, fertilizer stocking for spring ploughing heated up supported by high costs, raw material prices remained high due to tight environmental protection policies, and export rhythm was significantly affected by international bidding and policy adjustments.
I. Pesticide Market: Tight Supply and Firm Prices, Positive Export Momentum
1.Price and Supply-Demand: Mainstream pesticide varieties showed a trend of stability with moderate growth: glyphosate 95% technical material was quoted at 23,500-24,000 yuan/ton, glufosinate-ammonium rose to 46,000 yuan/ton driven by export tax rebates, while diquat and cyhalofop-butyl operated stably. Upstream factory inventories were low, operating rate remained low due to environmental restrictions; domestic spring ploughing stocking started, and overseas demand from South America and Southeast Asia increased significantly.
2.Export and Policies: A phased export rush occurred affected by export tax rebate adjustment, with port shipments increasing month-on-month and January pesticide exports rising by about 12% year-on-year; Brazil, Argentina and Southeast Asia had strong demand. Domestically, special governance on online pesticide operation was carried out; internationally, the EU updated pesticide residue standards and Brazil strengthened import inspection, highlighting the advantages of compliant enterprises.
II. Fertilizer Market: Spring Ploughing Stocking Heats Up, Supported by Cost and International Demand
1.Price and Cost: Structural upturn was seen in fertilizer prices: urea mainstream ex-factory price was 2,450-2,550 yuan/ton, 60% white potassium chloride port price was 4,000-4,050 yuan/ton, and phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer remained high. Sulfur, the core cost, was 4,203.33 yuan/ton, up 14.81% from early January; India's 2026 potassium fertilizer long-term contract negotiation was deadlocked, with suppliers raising quotes.
2.Supply-Demand and Export: Domestic fertilizer enterprises operated at 70%-75% capacity, with output slightly declining due to raw material shortage and pre-holiday maintenance; spring ploughing stocking was active with rigid demand. India issued a 1.5 million-ton urea tender, Middle East supply was interrupted, and domestic enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders with stable exports; multiple domestic departments implemented supply guarantee and price stabilization policies, while the EU increased subsidies and South America relaxed import tariffs.
III. Upstream Raw Material Market: High Cost, Tight Supply Due to Environmental Protection
1.Price and Supply-Demand: Core raw materials mostly rose: sulfur was 4,203.33 yuan/ton (up 3.2% week-on-week), yellow phosphorus was 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, liquid ammonia was stable, and methanol fluctuated slightly. Environmental supervision tightened, compressing the production space of small and medium-sized enterprises; leading enterprises operated at 65%-70% capacity, social inventory was low, and downstream stocking demand supported rigid procurement.
2.Export and Policies: Raw material exports were differentiated: exports of scarce raw materials such as sulfur and yellow phosphorus declined month-on-month due to domestic supply guarantee policies; exports of general raw materials such as PVC and methanol slowed temporarily. Domestically, policies promoted mercury-free transformation of PVC industry and construction of zero-carbon factories; internationally, recurring geopolitical situation in the Middle East drove up global basic chemical raw material costs.
IV. Market Outlook for Next Week (Feb 3-Feb 9)
Pesticides: Pre-Spring Festival stocking will draw to a close; prices of varieties in tight supply will still be supported, and the export rush rhythm will continue; attention should be paid to the landing of orders from the EU and South America.
Fertilizers: Spring ploughing stocking will continue; supported by high costs and international bidding, prices are unlikely to drop sharply; the issuance of urea export quotas and the progress of India's tender are the core variables.
Raw Materials: Affected by environmental protection production restrictions and low inventories, prices of core raw materials such as sulfur and yellow phosphorus will remain high; downstream cost pressure will still exist; attention should be paid to the post-holiday resumption rhythm.
Data Source
•Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China
•Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China
•Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China
•General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China
•Zhuochuang Information
•Shengyishe (Business Society)
•China Pesticide Information Network
•India National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)
•European Commission
•Ken Research
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