Pre-Spring Farming Outlook: Crop Structure and Planting Area Forecast for Wheat, Corn, and Rice

Summary

As pre-spring farming preparations progress steadily, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Bureau of Statistics have issued a series of policy signals to ensure food security and stable production. Based on official statistics, policy guidance, and recent planting trends, it is expected that in early 2026, the three major staple crops—wheat, corn, and rice—will continue to follow the general approach of “maintaining area, optimizing structure, and increasing yield.” While overall planting areas remain stable, internal crop structures are further optimized, and grain production is shifting from merely “quantity assurance” to “quality improvement and capacity enhancement.”

I. Crop Structure Before Spring Planting

1. Wheat: Clear Trend Toward Specialized and High-Quality Varieties

The main focus of wheat production structure adjustment lies in varieties and usage. While maintaining stable sowing areas in major producing regions, authorities are promoting specialized wheat varieties such as strong-gluten and high-quality medium-gluten wheat to better meet flour processing and food industry demand. The proportion of general-purpose and low-efficiency varieties is gradually declining. Wheat production is transitioning from simply ensuring supply to a model guided by quality and market integration, improving both per-unit area efficiency and market adaptability.

2. Corn: Accelerating Use Differentiation with Strong Industrial Orientation

Corn exhibits the most active structural adjustments among staple crops. High-yield feed corn continues to serve as the basic variety for livestock and feed industries, while high-starch and specialized corn varieties for starch, ethanol, and amino acid processing are increasingly prioritized. In addition, resilient varieties suitable for mechanized farming are being promoted, making corn production more closely integrated with downstream industrial chains. The structure is shifting from “single-purpose feed” to “dual-purpose for feed and industrial use.”

3. Rice: Synchronizing Seasonal and Quality Optimization

Adjustments in rice production focus on seasonal planting and variety composition. In southern major producing regions, early-season and double-cropping rice are being promoted, with centralized seedling raising, mechanization, and socialized services stabilizing double-crop planting. At the same time, the proportion of high-quality and specialized rice varieties continues to increase, while general indica varieties gradually decrease, emphasizing both quality improvement and overall production efficiency.

II. Planting Area Forecast

1. Wheat: Area Remains Stable

It is projected that wheat planting area nationwide before spring 2026 will remain around 353–355 million mu (23.5–23.7 million hectares), roughly the same as last year. As a cornerstone of food security, wheat benefits from strong policy support, and its growing regions are relatively fixed, making large fluctuations in area unlikely.

2. Corn: Slight Increase Expected

Corn continues to serve as the primary crop for structural adjustment and potential area expansion. Before spring 2026, national corn planting area is expected to reach 678–685 million mu (45.2–45.7 million hectares), continuing a steady growth trend. Stable feed demand and industrial processing development provide solid support for corn area expansion.

3. Rice: Stable with Slight Increase

Rice planting area remains resilient. Nationwide rice planting area before spring 2026 is expected to be 436–440 million mu (29.1–29.3 million hectares), slightly higher than last year. The continued promotion of double-cropping rice in southern regions supports the overall stability of rice area.

III. Market Outlook and Challenges

Overall, the foundation for grain production in 2026 is solid. Wheat and rice supply remains stable, while corn benefits from sustained feed and industrial processing demand. As crop structures shift toward specialized and high-quality varieties, market recognition and pricing power of premium grains are expected to improve. However, potential challenges remain, including climate variability, fluctuations in production costs, and the need to better align structural adjustments with market demand to avoid supply-demand mismatches.

Conclusion

In summary, the 2026 pre-spring planting layout for China’s staple crops demonstrates a clear pattern of “stable area, optimized structure, and strengthened capacity”: wheat maintains its role as a food security cornerstone with emphasis on quality, corn continues area expansion and structural adjustment as a key crop, and rice remains stable with double-cropping and premium varieties promoted. As spring planting unfolds, China’s grain production is transitioning from “area security” to “structural and capacity security,” laying a solid foundation for stable and increased production throughout the year.

Sources

• “2025 National Grain Planting Area, Production, and Yield Data Announcement” (National Bureau of Statistics)
• “China Achieves Another Record Grain Harvest This Year” (Science and Technology Daily, People’s Daily, and other media citing NBS data)
• “Analysis of China’s Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Situation” (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Market Early-Warning Expert Committee)
• “China accelerates efforts to boost crop yields, ensure food security” (Reuters)