Summary:
Ahead of the 2026 spring planting season, China’s fertiliser market is transitioning into a stabilisation phase. Policy-backed supply assurance, orderly winter stockpiling, and coordinated corporate actions have eased short-term volatility across phosphate fertilisers, compound fertilisers, and yellow phosphorus. With supply-demand balances improving, the market is expected to remain broadly stable, supporting spring agricultural production.
As the 2026 spring planting season approaches, China’s fertiliser market is entering a critical adjustment phase shaped by policy guidance, raw material fluctuations, and evolving demand expectations. Winter stockpiling—an essential mechanism for ensuring spring supply—has progressed steadily during the key period from December 2025 to January 2026. Across phosphate fertilisers, compound fertilisers, and yellow phosphorus, market trends have diverged, while leading enterprises have rolled out targeted measures to stabilise supply and mitigate volatility.
Overall Winter Stockpiling Progress
Winter stockpiling has advanced in an orderly manner under policy-led supply assurance and coordinated industry action. Since December 2025, major phosphate fertiliser producers have actively responded to supply initiatives, with contract signings and cargo deliveries progressing smoothly. Following the industry coordination meeting held on 24 December, inventories in key grain-producing regions have been gradually replenished, resulting in a more balanced stock structure.
The compound fertiliser market has shown a more differentiated pattern. Large producers, supported by stronger raw material access and distribution networks, have largely met baseline spring demand. In contrast, some small and mid-sized distributors, constrained by cautious market sentiment and funding pressure, have adopted a more conservative procurement strategy focused on small, demand-driven purchases.
As a key upstream raw material, yellow phosphorus stockpiling has been primarily production-oriented, with downstream manufacturers replenishing inventories on a needs basis. Inventory levels remain broadly aligned with pre-spring demand expectations, without signs of pronounced oversupply or shortage.
Product Line Trends Past Developments, Current Conditions and Short-Term Outlook
Phosphate fertilisers experienced intermittent volatility in November and early December 2025, driven by raw material price fluctuations and temporary supply tightness.
Since late December, policy intervention and producer commitments to stable supply have helped ease price pressure, bringing the market into a more stable range. In the short term, continued supply measures and the gradual implementation of cost-stabilisation mechanisms are expected to further narrow price fluctuations.
Compound fertilisers faced mounting cost pressure toward the end of 2025 due to rising upstream input prices.
While cost support remains evident and some producers have expressed adjustment intentions, new transactions continue to be dominated by small-volume, rigid-demand orders amid cautious downstream sentiment. As spring demand gradually materialises, the market is likely to remain broadly stable with limited fluctuations.
Yellow phosphorus saw mild price swings toward the end of 2025, with prices first easing and then rebounding, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Currently, supply and demand remain in a tight balance, and contract signings are progressing steadily. Supported by stable operating rates and gradual downstream demand recovery ahead of spring planting, significant short-term volatility appears unlikely.
Recent Corporate Developments
In late December 2025, several leading phosphate fertiliser producers—including Yuntianhua, Guizhou Phosphate Group, and Hubei Yihua—jointly signed a supply and price stabilisation commitment, pledging to ensure adequate market supply through the end of the 2026 spring planting season and to refrain from hoarding, tied sales, or price manipulation.
Earlier in December, a Yuntianhua-affiliated subsidiary secured a new phosphate mining licence in Yunnan, further strengthening long-term resource security. Meanwhile, centrally managed enterprises have coordinated internal sulphur resources to provide stable-priced supply to key phosphate fertiliser producers, easing cost pressure.
On the compound fertiliser side, YunTu Holdings completed the main construction phase of its circular economy and product structure upgrade project at the Yingcheng base in late December, with trial production already underway.
The project aims to enhance raw material self-sufficiency and expand higher-value fertiliser offerings. During December 2025 and early January 2026, Stanley Group intensified downstream engagement initiatives to secure quality supply and stabilise spring-season deliveries.
In the yellow phosphorus segment, XINGFA Group has continued advancing the integration of phosphochemical and new energy materials, with its lithium iron phosphate Phase II project completed and further capacity expansion planned for 2026.
Separately, Wengfu Jiangshan Chemical has accelerated construction of its yellow phosphorus and supporting projects, with mechanical completion targeted for mid-2026, adopting a circular economy model to improve resource efficiency and serve both fertiliser and industrial demand.
Market Implications
Overall, the core logic of the fertiliser market during the critical winter stockpiling period from December 2025 to January 2026 has been defined by policy-backed supply stabilisation and dynamic supply-demand balancing. Targeted regulatory coordination and proactive corporate measures have effectively eased temporary tightness and guided markets toward greater stability.
For growers, early January represents a rational window for phased procurement aligned with planting plans, helping avoid potential logistical bottlenecks. For industry participants, close alignment with policy direction, strengthened inventory management, and deeper supply chain coordination will remain essential to mitigating risk and supporting a smooth spring planting season.
Sources: CCM, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Yingcheng Municipal Government Portal, Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, Nongshi Network, China Chemical News; Meeting minutes and public information of China Agricultural Materials Circulation Association and Guizhou Phosphate Chemical Group.
About CCM
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science industries. Founded in 2001, CCM delivers price monitoring, trade analysis and customized market research.CCM also provides advertising and promotional services for agrochemical producers and suppliers, helping companies reach targeted global buyers and distributors.
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