After Uralkali OAO’s withdrawal from the Belarusian Potash Company in July, and the disbanding of PhosChem in Oct., the global atmosphere for phosphate fertilizer remained gloomy in the second half of 2013. Export prices fell about 30% from May to Nov. With the closing of China's fertilizer export window on Oct. 16, global prices stabilized in Nov. and there were signs of recovery in Latin America markets, such as Argentina.
The prices of phosphorus ore and phosphate fertilizer remained low. Even though China's Off-season Reserves pulled up the operating rate of phosphate fertilizers and the phosphorus ore demand, the severe overcapacity of the former and high inventory levels of the latter will still stop the market from warming up before March 2014. A more tangible recovery will not come before the spring ploughing of 2014.
Yellow phosphorus prices kept stable, while prices of phosphoric acid and fine phosphorus chemicals, including phosphorus food additives, dropped in Nov. The fall in phosphoric acid prices was partially due to the increasing application of (the cheaper) wet process phosphoric acid. Phosphorus food additives find themselves in a lull between major holidays—Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day (Sept. 19/Oct. 01) and Christmas and Spring Festival (Dec. 25/Jan. 31), which accounts in part for price drops in Nov. With the widespread shutdown of yellow phosphorus factories in Yunnan, as companies attempt to cash in on the higher dry season prices of Dec., domestic yellow phosphorus prices may rise slightly in Dec. and in the beginning of 2014.
Average exchange rate in Nov. 2013, USD:CNY=1:6.093
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