Welcome to the September issue of Dairy Products China Monthly Report
In September 2026, the IMF maintained its global growth forecast at about 3%, having raised its projection for global headline inflation to 4.7% in July 2026, indicating a marked slowdown in disinflation and somewhat higher near-term inflation expectations. The energy shock from Middle East conflicts has yet to subside, with oil and gas prices remaining elevated, while rising debt-servicing costs and overheated AI investment pose new tail risks.
In China, export resilience and marginal stabilization in real estate sales provide key support. Property investment remains in deep adjustment, with nationwide real estate development investment down 19.9% YoY in January–August, while sales improved marginally. Manufacturing and infrastructure carry a heavier growth-stabilization burden, with high-tech manufacturing and green capex maintaining relatively rapid growth. Prices show a "moderate consumption, recovering production" pattern, with August CPI up 0.8% YoY and PPI up 3.8% YoY.
China's dairy market is recovering moderately, with import substitution continuing and signals of a raw milk cycle turning point strengthening. Industry volumes are recovering modestly while structural divergence deepens. The competitive focus is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency improvement. Upstream cost and quality variables, specialty dairy supply, and precision nutrition innovation are jointly shaping the direction of adjustment.
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