The glyphosate market is experiencing a strong recovery driven by dual forces of supply and demand, combining the traditional South American procurement season with domestic autumn sowing herbicide needs.
Since the second half of this year, the glyphosate market has shaken off its gloom and seen a strong upward trend. As of the end of July, the market transaction price for 95% glyphosate technical grade reached 26,500-26,800 yuan/ton, and 97% technical grade reached 26,800-27,500 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 20% compared to early May.
Behind this price surge is the combined effect of significantly increased exports driven by South America's traditional procurement season and domestic demand during the critical autumn weed control period.
On the supply side, production restrictions due to high temperatures and concentrated maintenance plans have further intensified market tensions.
01 Market Status: Glyphosate Prices Continue to Rise
The glyphosate market began its upward trajectory in May 2025. From early May to May 28, the price of 95% glyphosate technical grade increased from 23,300 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2%.
The momentum accelerated in July. From July 1 to July 31, the glyphosate price jumped from 24,400 yuan/ton to 26,600 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.02%, hitting a new high for the year.
As of August 24, the quoted price for 95% glyphosate technical grade has reached 27,500 yuan/ton, and 97% grade is quoted at 28,000 yuan/ton, up about 20% from early May.
The significant improvement in market supply and demand dynamics is the core factor driving this price increase. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, for the week of August 24, weekly glyphosate production was 8,600 tons, up 18.71% from the previous week; however, weekly inventory decreased to 27,800 tons, down 700 tons from the previous week.
The continuous inventory decline against the backdrop of increased production reflects the current tight supply situation.
02 Demand Expansion: Dual Drivers of Overseas Peak Season and Domestic Autumn Sowing
Strong performance on the demand side is an important driver for the glyphosate market recovery. The traditional procurement season in South America has begun, with pesticide demand from Brazil and other countries bringing incremental growth to foreign trade orders.
China's annual glyphosate exports account for more than 85% of total production, with South America as the world's largest consumption market. The spring planting preparation cycle from June to August in this region directly drives concentrated order releases.
North and South America represent the largest demand markets globally, accounting for 58% of total demand combined.
Domestic market demand is equally strong. With the arrival of the autumn sowing season, farmland weed control demand is rising, and downstream formulation manufacturers are actively building inventories.
The National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center's "2025 Autumn-Sown Wheat and Rapeseed Field Scientific Weed Control Technology Plan" emphasizes that this year's main autumn-sown wheat and rapeseed production areas in China will experience more precipitation than usual, with generally suitable soil moisture conditions, and field weeds are expected to be moderately to heavily prevalent.
Weeds in autumn-sown wheat fields typically affect approximately 250 million mu, while rapeseed field weeds affect over 60 million mu, providing a solid domestic demand foundation for the glyphosate market.
03 Supply Constraints: High-Temperature Production Restrictions and Inventory Decline
In contrast to demand expansion, the glyphosate supply side shows tightening trends. Affected by high temperatures, glyphosate production restrictions and maintenance shutdowns are frequent, with some facilities undergoing concentrated maintenance in August, creating expectations for tightened supply.
Currently, some glyphosate factories have stopped quoting and are holding back sales. Facilities in Henan and Anhui are under maintenance, while other manufacturers are operating with slight reductions, with industry capacity utilization maintained at just over 60%.
Compounded by increased in-house consumption of technical material for concentrated formulation deliveries and shipping schedules, market supply is further tightening.
In terms of industry inventory, as of the end of May, industry inventory levels decreased by nearly 8% year-on-year, showing significant destocking results. As of August 24, weekly glyphosate inventory was 27,800 tons, down 700 tons from the previous week.
Continuous inventory decline has intensified market tensions.
04 Pre-Winter Weed Control: Technical Solutions and Market Opportunities
Facing the critical period for weed control in autumn-sown crop fields, the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center recently issued the "2025 Autumn-Sown Wheat and Rapeseed Field Scientific Weed Control Technology Plan," providing scientific guidance for pre-winter weed management.
The technical plan proposes to focus on the sensitive period for weeds before winter, adopting agricultural measures as the foundation and chemical measures as important means to achieve green sustainable weed management in autumn-sown wheat and rapeseed fields, with weed control treatment rates reaching over 90%, control effectiveness over 90%, and weed damage losses controlled below 5%.
Wheat field weed control strategies are divided into two patterns: paddy-upland rotation and dryland-dryland rotation:
Paddy-upland rotation wheat fields, with large weed bases, adopt a "one-prevention, one-elimination" strategy for weed control.
Before sowing and after seedling emergence, use flufenacet, pretilachlor, isoproturon, diflufenican and other agents for soil sealing treatment.
Dryland-dryland rotation wheat fields, under good soil moisture conditions during autumn sowing, adopt a "one-prevention, one-supplement" strategy for weed control.
Before sowing and after seedling emergence, use pyroxasulfone, diflufenican, clomazone and other agents for soil sealing treatment.
Rapeseed field weed control adopts a "one-prevention, one-elimination" strategy:
Minimum-tillage light cultivation rapeseed, apply glyphosate and other herbicides to control already emerged weeds before sowing, and use S-metolachlor, propisochlor, acetochlor and their compound formulations for soil sealing treatment after sowing and before seedling emergence.
The implementation of this technical plan will further drive demand for glyphosate and other herbicides, injecting continuous momentum into the market.
05 Market Divergence: Glyphosate Diverges from Raw Material Trends
A noteworthy phenomenon in this upward trend is that glyphosate and its upstream and downstream market trends show significant differences, with reduced correlation with upstream materials.
In July, glyphosate and its main raw material yellow phosphorus gradually diverged. Although glyphosate continued to rise recently, it had limited short-term impact on the raw material end.
Yellow phosphorus prices remained generally stable in July, consolidating around 22,200 yuan/ton; although glycine prices rose from 10,500 yuan/ton to 10,900 yuan/ton, the 3.81% increase was far lower than glyphosate's 9.02%.
In contrast, liquid chlorine and methanol market support weakened, with slight declines during the month.
The divergence between glyphosate and raw material trends reflects that the current market is more influenced by the product's own fundamentals. As glyphosate prices continue to rise, gross margin conditions have significantly improved, with the current industry gross margin at 11.19%, up 8.4 percentage points from the beginning of the month.
06 Industry Outlook: Medium to Long-Term Supply-Demand Tightness, Prosperity Expected to Maintain
From a medium to long-term perspective, the tight supply-demand balance in the glyphosate market will continue. China has classified new glyphosate production facilities as restricted projects, limiting future new glyphosate production capacity.
With the continuous expansion of global genetically modified crop planting areas, coupled with the accelerated phase-out of traditional herbicides like paraquat due to toxicity issues, glyphosate has clear space for demand growth.
With genetically modified crop planting areas expanding at an average annual rate of 5%, combined with the gradual exit of substitutes like paraquat, global glyphosate demand is expected to maintain a 2%-3% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030.
Guosen Securities research reports believe that with the advancement of anti-involution efforts in the pesticide industry, and catalysts such as Bayer's ongoing litigation problems overseas being difficult to resolve in the short term, they are optimistic about glyphosate prices continuing to maintain high levels in the second half of the year.
Huatai Securities also stated that medium-term, with continuous increases in domestic and international planting areas, the gradual exit of herbicides like paraquat, combined with "anti-involution" policy catalysts and enhanced enforcement of safety and environmental protection potentially reducing domestic supply, glyphosate may see a bottom reversal.
In the next 1-2 months, inventory gaps in the Brazilian market and domestic stockpiling demand will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, while maintenance plans during high temperatures will continue to affect supply capacity, making the supply-demand imbalance in the glyphosate market likely to continue.
Currently, glyphosate market prices have reached annual highs. Emergency order premiums will become normal, and as spot inventories are further depleted, upward price pressure may intensify further.
With the comprehensive rollout of autumn weed control efforts and the continuous release of South American market demand, the glyphosate market is expected to maintain high-level operation, bringing a new round of prosperity cycle to the agrochemical industry.
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