Summary：
China’s 2025 autumn harvest reflects a strong shift toward smart and efficient agriculture. Mechanization now exceeds 75%, grain and livestock markets are recovering, and new policies are accelerating land protection, eco-forestry, and digital farming. From stable yields to intelligent tools, China’s agricultural sector is entering a more balanced, technology-driven growth phase.
1. Macro Trends Show Balanced Growth
According to the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), China’s agriculture in 2025 demonstrates a balanced structure of stable planting, rising livestock, and thriving forestry.
Mechanization Rate: The national mechanization level for crop cultivation and harvesting exceeded 75%, while wheat, corn, and rice surpassed 97%, 91%, and 88%, achieving near full mechanization for major grains.
Price Index: In the first half of 2025, the Agricultural Producer Price Index reached 100.38. Crop prices rebounded from 98.62 in Q1 to 101.04, forestry products rose 3.23 points to 96.42, and livestock prices slightly declined by 0.05% YoY before showing recovery in September.
Forestry Expansion: Over 4 million mu (≈ 266,700 hectares) of new autumn–winter afforestation have been launched. Central fiscal subsidies increased 15% YoY, and thinning subsidies for mid-aged forests rose to USD 58 per mu (≈ USD 870 per hectare).
2. Autumn Harvest Accelerates with Mechanization
By October 9, about 40% of China’s autumn grains had been harvested, marking the peak harvest season.
(1) Crop Progress
Rice: In Hunan, mechanized harvesting improved efficiency 20× over manual methods and reduced grain loss by 3%, with cooperative yields reaching 7.8 tons per hectare. Heilongjiang’s Huachuan County raised harvest efficiency to 95%, adding output equivalent to 40 tons across its 8,000 hectare base.
Corn: Favorable weather in the northeast supports kernel maturity, though heavy rainfall in Henan and Shanxi slowed operations. The 2025/26 corn import forecast was lowered by 1 million tons to 6 million, with prices expected to remain stable under low reserves.
Specialty Crops: Liaoning’s peanut yields hit 5.3–6.7 tons per hectare, up about 6% YoY. Hebei’s Xianxian expanded its jujube industry via retail + livestream + processing, generating over USD 1,400 per hectare in income.
(2) Leading Enterprises
Beidahuang Group: As China’s largest grain producer, its Sanjiang Division deployed 12,000 machines using BeiDou navigation + smart scheduling, reducing soybean loss to 1.2% (down 0.8 ppts). By October 8, it had harvested 186,700 hectares of rice (≈ 45% of plan), targeting full completion by late October.
3. Autumn–Winter Production Driven by Policy and Technology
(1) Winter Wheat Sowing
The 2025 sowing area reached 22.6 million hectares, slightly higher than last year. Provinces such as Anhui and Hebei each added 67,000 hectares, supported by higher purchase prices and expanded crop insurance.
Most regions reported adequate soil moisture. In Jilin’s Yushu, rotary tillage with straw incorporation raised rice yields by 375 kg/ha; in Sichuan’s Qionglai, the hybrid rice “Qingxiangyou 19 Xiang” produced 5–15% higher yields than conventional strains.
(2) Forestry Development
Guangxi Yachang Forest Farm transformed 4,470 hectares into high-value mixed forests using eco-intercropping + timber rotation. Local species such as Albizia and Zelkova are planted at 300 trees/ha.
Supported by subsidies of USD 870/ha, survival rates exceed 85% across 800,000 trees planted since 2019. The projected 30-year per-hectare value is USD 21,000, over 5× that of eucalyptus.
Additionally, 45,000 hectares of external forests adopted a contracted management model, raising annual timber growth from 1.5–2.5 m³/ha to 2.5–3.8 m³/ha, generating USD 25 million in revenue in H1 2024.
4. Markets Rebound as Grain and Livestock Strengthen
(1) Grain and Cash Crops
Soybeans: Domestic soybeans averaged USD 620/ton, down 10.6% YoY amid delayed arrivals and global oversupply.
Cotton: Xinjiang’s harvest reached 24.9%, up 0.9 ppts YoY. Ginned cotton prices stayed stable at USD 1,940–2,220/ton for 2025/26.
(2) Livestock Sector
Beef: Prices climbed to USD 8.50/kg, up 21% YoY, signaling a cyclical rebound. Muyuan Foods shortened fattening cycles to 14 months via self-breeding + precision feeding, reducing feed ratio to 5.2:1 and adding 100,000 head of capacity.
Dairy: Raw milk prices recovered to USD 0.42/kg, with the meat-to-milk ratio at a record high, indicating synchronized recovery across the livestock and dairy sectors.
5. Policy Momentum and Industry Transition
(1) Land Protection and Investment
The Permanent Basic Farmland Protection Regulation, effective October 1, prohibits non-agricultural use of arable land and mandates inclusion in the unified “One Map” spatial planning system.
The central government also released the second batch of 2025 agricultural funds, increasing farm-machinery subsidies by 8%, prioritizing smart and high-efficiency equipment.
(2) Transformation Pathways
Smart Mechanization: DJI Agriculture launched integrated drone seeding + deep plowing services in Shandong, tripling wheat-sowing efficiency and cutting costs by USD 2/ha, covering over 133,000 hectares.
Circular Agriculture: In Jilin’s Da’an, the “rice–shrimp symbiosis” model achieved dual yields, with off-season shrimp prices at USD 4.80–6.20/kg.
Meanwhile, Yachang Forest Farm operates short-cycle commercial forests externally and long-cycle precious forests internally, reinvesting over USD 2.8 million annually from commercial income into ecological restoration.
Outlook
China’s agricultural sector in 2025 is transitioning toward mechanization, ecological optimization, and intelligent growth.
From stable grain output and forestry innovation to livestock recovery and digital transformation, the industry is moving steadily toward balanced, efficient, and green development.
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