I. Import-Export Data
1. Overall Performance
· China's Trends: Total agricultural imports and exports reached $121.21 billion in Jan-May 2025 (-7.6% YoY), but exports rose 3.5% YoY to $41.21 billion while imports fell 12.5% to $80 billion, narrowing the trade deficit by 24.9%.
· Key Commodities:
o Soybeans: Cumulative imports of 37.108 million tons (-0.7% YoY), valued at $16.71 billion (-15.4% YoY). Dependence on the U.S. dropped to 23%, with Brazil's share rising to 70%.
o Grains: Exports of 1.143 million tons (+38.9% YoY); imports of 48.368 million tons (-29.7% YoY). U.S. dependence for corn imports fell to 15%.
· EU Market: Set a record in 2024 with agricultural exports of €235.4 billion, including €21.7 billion in October alone (+8% YoY), driven by coffee, olive oil, and sugar.
· U.S. Exports to China: After China imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans and corn in March 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China fell 60% YoY, replaced by Brazil and Argentina.
II. Supply Chain Fluctuations
1. Geopolitics and Trade Policies
· U.S.-China Tariff Game: China suspended import eligibility for 3 U.S. firms, shifting imports to Brazil (70% of China's soybean imports) and Argentina (corn imports tripled).
· EU Policy: The EU's Deforestation Regulation took effect, requiring companies to prove deforestation-free supply chains, increasing export costs for Southeast Asian palm oil and South American soybeans.
2. Climate and Natural Disasters
· South America:
o Brazil's drought caused a fifth consecutive coffee yield shortfall in 2025, pushing Arabica futures above $4/lb.
o Improved rainfall in Argentina eased corn and soybean supply pressures.
· Europe: Winter storms in Spain damaged greenhouse vegetable supplies, driving olive oil prices up 200% in three years. Supply chain recovery in 2025 will dictate price trends.
III. Corporate Project Updates
1. Syngenta Group: Unveiled pest-resistant corn varieties at the 2025 Seed Congress and partnered with PepsiCo on regenerative agriculture, targeting 50 million hectares by 2030.
2. Cargill: Completed 50% of a canola processing plant in Saskatchewan, Canada, scheduled for 2025 launch with 1 million tons/year capacity.
3. COFCO: Signed a $900 million letter of intent for soybean and corn purchases in Argentina, investing in corn processing plants to promote "contract farming" models.
IV. Price Trends
l Agricultural Futures:
1. Grains faced pressure from global stockpiles and South American harvests (corn -1% YoY, wheat -23%).
2. Soybeans rebounded on drought speculation but remained 14% down YoY. Palm oil briefly priced above soybean oil due to Indonesian policies, with a mid-year supply-demand reversal expected.
l Timber Market:
1. The Random Lengths North American softwood price index hit $450/thousand board feet in February 2025. Lower interest rates may boost demand, but oversupply limits price growth.
2. The EU extended anti-dumping duties on Chinese plywood until 2026, raising China's hardwood import costs by 15% and benefiting Southeast Asian suppliers.
V. Industry Impacts and Trends
· Supply Chain Restructuring: U.S.-China trade friction accelerates China's "de-Americanization" of imports, with South America as the top supplier (Brazil's soybean share may exceed 70% in 2025).
· Technological Drive: Biobased breeding (e.g., Syngenta's pest-resistant corn) and digital agriculture (e.g., COFCO's South American farm upgrades) are key to boosting yields and cutting costs.
· Sustainable Transition: The EU's deforestation rules and corporate net-zero goals force green supply chains, with regenerative agriculture (e.g., Syngenta's "Run Tian" project) gaining traction.
· Normalized Volatility: Extreme weather, energy policies (e.g., Indonesia's biodiesel mandates), and geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainty, urging firms to enhance risk hedging.
Data sources: USDA, tranalysis.com/Services/Index#item2?KeyWordID=a79ce48b5d184549a8fa7166008f3ad3&PublisherID=b3fac7dd-9156-424c-9843-193631ebb67b' target='_blank'>China Customs Administration, European Commission, CCM
More information can be found at CCM Crop/Farming/Wood China Monthly Report.
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China's agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.