Summary：In 2024, China's pesticide water agent exports jumped 3.1761m t (+28.8%),
$9b (+11.3%), imports fell (vol -6.4%, val -16.4%). Thanks to domestic tech
(85% biopesticide local.), global supply chain change (30% EU capacity cut),
RCEP tariff cuts. 38% water suspension agents, high - margin drone products
drove exports. African price wars (15% cut), grain price swings are risks. The
industry will enhance global edge through "tech, service, green
shift".
On February 26th, the China Chamber of
Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters released
the import and export situation of pesticide water agents in China in 2024.
In terms of imports, in 2024, the import
quantity of pesticide water agents in China was 82,100 tons, a year-on-year
decrease of 6.4%; the total import value was 814 million US dollars, a
year-on-year decrease of 16.4%.
In terms of exports, in 2024, the export
quantity of pesticide water agents in China was 3.1761 million tons, a
year-on-year increase of 28.8%; the total export value was 9 billion US
dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%.
CCM made the following analysis:
I. Core Reasons for the Decline in Imports
Deepening
of Domestic Substitution
Domestic enterprises have filled the gaps
in high-end water agent products through technological upgrades (such as
microcapsule formulation and nano-pesticide technology).
The localization rate of biopesticides has
exceeded 85%, reducing the dependence on imports.
Adjustment of Demand Structure
The promotion of precision agriculture has
reduced the use of traditional pesticides.
The promotion of genetically modified crops
has compressed the demand space for some imported water agents.
Reversal
of Cost Advantage
The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate
has weakened the price competitiveness of imported products.
The comprehensive production cost of
domestic water agents is 20-30% lower than that of imported products.
II. Driving Factors for Export Growth
Reconstruction
of the Global Supply Chain
The expansion of the planting area in South
America and Southeast Asia has generated incremental demand (the soybean
planting area in Brazil increases by 4% annually).
The energy crisis in Europe has led to a
30% shrinkage of local production capacity.
Enhancement
of Technological Competitiveness
The export proportion of environmentally
friendly formulations such as water suspension agents has increased to 38%.
Digital plant protection solutions have
driven the export of supporting water agents.
Adjustment
of Market Strategy
The bundled sales model of "technical
materials + formulations" has a penetration rate of over 60% in the
African market.
The entry into force of the RCEP has
reduced the tariff cost in the ASEAN market by 15-20%.
III. Forecast of Future Trends
(1) Evolution of Import and Export Volume
and Price Trends
Conversion
of Export Momentum
1.Coexistence of Quantity Expansion and
Price Pressure
The export volume in 2024 was 3.1761
million tons (+28.8%), but the average export price of formulations has dropped
to 22,000 yuan per ton (refer to web data).
Driving factors: Withdrawal of European
production capacity (such as the closure of BASF's German factory), expansion
of the planting area in South America (the soybean area in Brazil increases by
4% annually).
Risk warning: Enterprises such as India's
UPL are grabbing orders at low prices, and the price of formulations in the
African market has dropped by 15% year-on-year.
2.Highlights of Structural Growth
The export proportion of biopesticides has
exceeded 12% (only 8% in 2023), and the export of glufosinate ammonium water
agents to genetically modified crops has increased by 35%.
Low-drift formulations specially for drones
have become a new growth pole (accounting for 8% of the export volume of
formulations, with a gross profit margin of over 20%).
Qualitative
Change in the Import Market
1.The Deep-seated Logic of Quantity
Reduction and Price Increase
The import volume was 82,100 tons (-6.4%),
but the import unit price of special additives has increased by 18% against the
trend.
In areas with technological bottlenecks:
The import dependence of stress-resistant additives (such as drought-resistant
additives) still reaches 75%.
(2) The Path of Industrial Chain
Transformation
Accelerated
Upstream Integration
Integration of Technical Materials and
Formulations
The proportion of self-produced technical
materials of leading enterprises has increased to 70% (50% in 2024), reducing
costs by 8-12%.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are
forced to withdraw from the competition in bulk products (the production
capacity concentration of glyphosate will reach 85%).
Extension
of Downstream Services
Rise of Solution Providers
The gross profit margin of the packaged
model of pesticides, drones, and agricultural technology services reaches 25%
(only 8% for simply selling pesticides).
The proportion of technical service revenue
of multinational enterprises has exceeded 30% (Syngenta's digital agriculture
platform covers 100 million mu).
Reshaping
of International Trade Rules
Game of Double Standards
Developed countries have set up "green
thresholds": The EU carbon tariff will cover pesticides (in 2026).
Relaxation of Market Access in Developing
Countries: The unified pesticide registration system for 55 African countries
is being promoted.
(3) Coexistence of Risks and Opportunities
Early
Warning of Systemic Risks
Reversal of the Global
Inventory Cycle
The inventory turnover days of
international agrochemical giants have rebounded to 45 days (the warning line
is 60 days).
If the grain price drops by 20%, the demand
for pesticides may drop sharply by 15%.
Shock Wave of Technological Substitution
The popularization of gene-edited crops may
reduce the demand for some insecticides by 30%.
Strategic
Opportunity Window
Golden Period of Biopesticides
The number of registered varieties in China
has exceeded 200 (140 in 2024), and the cost of microbial pesticides has
decreased by 40%.
The proportion of the area of organic
agriculture in the EU has reached 30%, opening up an export space of 1 billion
US dollars.
New Channel for South-South Cooperation
Agricultural cooperation projects under the
Belt and Road Initiative have driven a 25% increase in pesticide exports.
The settlement in local currencies between
China and Africa avoids exchange rate risks and increases the profit margin by
2-3 percentage points.
(4) Analysis of Policy Sensitivity
Upgrading
of Domestic Supervision
In 2025, the mandatory implementation of
carbon emission limits for formulation production will require 30% of the
production capacity to be renovated.
The implementation of the green pesticide
subsidy policy can reduce the production cost of biological formulations by
15%.
Changes
in International Rules
The WTO agricultural subsidy negotiations
may lead to a surge in anti-dumping investigations.
The tax credits for biopesticides in the US
Inflation Reduction Act will affect the global competition pattern.
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China's agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
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