Since 2004, China's grain production has had "the continuous growth in 11 years'. However, the grain shortfall in China still won't be improved in the coming years.
Han Changfu, Secretary of Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China, stated in an article published in People's Daily: it is estimated that China's grain demand will reach near 1,400 billion jin with the shortfall of about 200 billion jin in 2020.
At present, the supply and demand of the staple food grain variety in China seems to be relatively balanced and the shortfall mainly comes from forage grain and industry grain, according to the article.
Therefore, the key part of guaranteeing China's grain security lies in the improvement of agricultural competitiveness.
China needs to carry forward the land consolidation and improvement, and medium and low yield farmland rehabilitation. In addition, the government should put effort in the construction of high-standard farm land on a large scale, with 0.8 billion mu high-standard farm land being built in 2020.
Reality: the import of grain exceeds hundred million tons for the first time in 2014
Chen Xiwen, Deputy Chief and Director of the Office of Central Rural Work Leading Group, pointed out: "In this year, the grain has had "the continuous growth in 12 years' and the production is predicated to reach near 1,230 billion jin.' The annual output in this year, compared with that of 12 years ago, increased over 360 billion jin.
During the period of "the 12th Five-Year Plan', the grain production has reached 200 billion jin in five years. In 2014, the total output of grain reached 1,214.2 billion jin, with the output stabilized over 1,200 billion jin in successive two years.
However, the "continuous growth in 12 years' of grain can't cover up the reality of "the shortfall of grain in harvest year'.
The import quantity of grain has increased year by year in recent years. In 2014, the import of grain in China exceeded 0.1 billion tons for the first time, according to Customs.
And in recent years, the three grain varieties in China including rice, wheat and corn also have appeared net import in successive four years. Besides, the broomcorn and DDGS (Distillers Dried Grains with Soluble), the substitute goods of corn, have also witnessed substantial increase in import in recent years.
China's supply and demand of agricultural products present a trend of rigid growth because of the increasing total population, the rising of urban population proportion, the improvement of citizens' consumption level and the expansion of industrial use of agricultural products, according to Han Changfu.
It is estimated that in 2020, China's grain demand will reach near 1,400 billion jin with the shortfall of about 200 billion jin.
Zhang Zhaoxin, Director and Researcher of industry and technology laboratory of Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China, stated: "The grain shortfall of 200 billion jin should mainly be the shortfall of forage grain, especially for professional forage grain.'
In his point of view, in 2020, China's grain production capacity will reach 1,400 billion jin, which is easy to achieve. In particular, if the production capacity of staple food grain increases, the loose state can guarantee the absolute security of the grain in China.
In the future: the variety of non-staple food grain can rely on import
China should pay more attention to domestic and international markets and resources, according to Han Changfu.
The government should appropriately increase the import of agricultural products based on domestic demand, strengthen the regulation on the import and export of agricultural products and also support the export of advantageous agricultural products.
In fact, according to "the 13th Five-Year Plan', China should ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grain and the absolute security of grain ration.
However, this goal is different from the goals in "the 12th Five-Year Plan", to guarantee the national food security and to increase hundred-billion-jin grain production capacity.
This means that during "the 13th Five-Year Plan' period, part of grain can rely on import after guaranteeing the security of staple cereal and grain ration.
Ye Xingqing, Minister and Researcher of Research Department of Rural Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, pointed out that this has won over the room for the adjustment of agricultural production structure and production mode.
Han Changfu also pointed out in his article that China should promote the opening-up of agriculture to the outside world to strengthen the cooperation with outside world and seize the vital opportunity of "One Belt and One Road' construction to accelerate the cultivation of agriculture enterprise group with international competitiveness.
Solution: cultivate a batch of grain enterprises with international competitiveness
Li Guoxiang, Deputy Director of Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believed that China's strategy of protecting grain security lies in the improvement of the agricultural competitiveness.
"Part of the grain shortfall could be resolved through import in general conditions' said Li, "But in consideration of extreme conditions, China's grain production capacity should timely recover to ensure the sustainable development. Thus, crop rotation and fallow could be carried out for part of cultivated land.'
Ye Xingqing stated that during "the 13th Five-Year Plan' period, China should focus on the competitiveness of agricultural products instead of the increase of yielding. Also, the government should reconstruct the agricultural policy system as to improve the competitiveness.
At present, China's medium and low-yield field accounts for 2/3 of cultivated land area and the effective irrigation area only takes up over the half of the cultivated land area. The situation of living by depending on the weather hasn't been radically changed.
In addition, in recent years, the agricultural science and technology contribution to grain yield increase has improved year by year in China. The contribution rate of agricultural science and technology has reached 56%, increasing over 10 percentages than that of 10 years ago.
However, it is still lagged behind a lot compared to developed countries.
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Tag: grain demand
*This article is a translated and re-edited version by CCM and the original version comes from Sina.com.