Challenges and Opportunities-Future of China Glyphosate Industry

Publish time: 2nd July, 2010      Source: CCM
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      ("The Chinese glyphosate industry is facing great challenges, but also opportunity to impetus for the industry reformation, which is the only way out for China glyphosate.")
      "The gloomy market of China's glyphosate continues and becomes worse in the first half of 2010, and the whole industry has suffered from low operation rate and slim profit (or negative profit). The external pressures such as abolishment of export rebate, RMB appreciation risk, heightening environmental protection requirement, etc is making Chinese glyphosate industry face with more challenge but also opportunities."

      Chinese statistic department recently announced an estimated 11.1% increase of GDP in the first half of 2010, indicating the heartening recovery of economic and export. But to glyphosate industry, it is an exception. The glyphosate export, which constitutes more than 85% of China's output, hasn't seen increase in H1 2010.
      According to CCM International's analysis, the export of Glyphosate technical and formulations in the first half of 2010 dropped over the corresponding period in 2009. -2.35% in glyphosate technical, -29.9% in 41% IPA and -21.4% in 62% IPA. Although export volume of 75.7% WSG rose up 40% over the same period last year, it only takes up a small part of China's AI export.
      In H1 2010, the average price of glyphosate technical decreased by 5.58% over the corresponding period last year, the harshest period of global economy. Price of glyphosate technical has been running under the manufacturing cost for months in H1 2010 and hit historical low.
      The extremely low price had led to the profit loss of most glyphosate manufacturers. Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical &Chemicals Company, the second domestic largest glyphosate manufacturer had announced its profit loss in Q1 2010; Anhui Huaxing Chemical Industry Company, another key player in glyphosate industry recently cut down its previous estimation of financial performance in H1 2010, indicating profit loss in Q2 2010 and tiny profit in the whole H1 2010.
      Besides the gloomy market, Chinese glyphosate industry is now facing new challenges.
      On 22 June 2010, the China Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation jointly promulgated a regulation named "Notice for the Elimination of export VAT rebate to selected products", declaring that export rebate on products under the selected 406 HS codes would be abolished from 15 July 2010, with glyphosate technical being included.
      According to Mr. Ola Cheng, senior researcher from CCM International, "The abolishment of this glyphosate technical's export rebate manifests government's determination to accelerate glyphosate industry integration. Most products under the 406 selected tariff codes are of high energy consumption or high pollution, while for glyphosate technical, it doesn't have these characteristics, which surprised us but reasonable."
      Furthermore, the decreased USD exchange rate against RMB, or so-called RMB appreciation, has exerted new pressure on Chinese glyphosate industry.
      Besides, some experts suggest that China should heighten threshold of glyphosate production strictly qualified glyphosate Chinese manufacturers. Those companies who can't meet environment production requirement and can't reach all document proof will be prohibited production.
      In fact, these pressures are great challenges to Chinese glyphosate manufacturers, but also impetus for the industry reformation of glyphosate industry.
      "Undergoing so many pressures, including severe overcapacity, RMB appreciation, abolishment of glyphosate technical's export rebate, Chinese glyphosate industry is facing good chance for the industry integration and reformation." Said Ola Cheng, "The second half this year and the first half next year will be important periods for the industrial reformation of Chinese industry. Only these companies having cost and scale competitiveness could survive in the market. It's predicted that glyphosate price will gradually increase to a rational price in H1 2011, which is estimated to be USD4,494/t ~ USD5,243/t."

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