Brazil's 2013-14 soy crop forecast up, corn down

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Publish time: 10th October, 2013      Source: www.cnchemicals.com
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October 10, 2013

   

   
Brazil''s 2013-14 soy crop forecast up, corn down
   
   

   

After weather delays to plantings and farmers decreased area planted between 4% and 7% due to low local prices, Conab estimated a 2013-14 corn crop of between 78.4 million and 79.6 million tonnes, below the 81.3 million tonnes expected in 2012-13, but stood by expectations for a huge soy harvest, encouraged by "remunerative prices".

   

   

Brazil''s government crop supply agency Conab forecast a 2013-14 soy crop that would surpass last season''s record by as much as 10% and make Brazil the world''s top producer as farmers expand into new fields.

   

   

Conab forecast a harvest of 87.6 million-89.7 million tonnes, a little higher than the range of 84.7 million-89.9 million tonnes made in last month''s initial projections. The forecast reflects expectations of area increases of up to 5.9%, as Brazilian farmers "prioritise" soy, thanks in part to "remunerative prices".

   

   

Soyarea in Brazil will likely reach a record of between 28,663 and 29,356 hectares, "consolidating an increasing trend in all regions". Planting is only about 3% complete, after less than average rain in many areas in September, and the climate will need to cooperate for the crop to reach its full potential.

   

   

For the second year, Brazil''s soy exports, estimated at 45.9 million tonnes, will likely surpass domestic consumption of 40.7 million tonnes, helping replenish global stocks.

   

   

Conab, which in outline forecasts last month had held out the potential for an 82.6 million-tonne cornharvest, reduced to 79.6 million tonnes its expectation for the biggest result that could be achieved. The figure reflected a slower start to the first-crop sowing season, within the south 30% of plantings completed in Parana and 50% in Rio Grande do Sul, "lower compared to last year due to heavy rains at the end September, which hindered planting", Conab said.

   

   

In Santa Catarina, "for the same reason, planting has not yet started", with planters idled "waiting for a reduction in soil moisture. In the key central states, such as Mato Grosso, too little rain is the problem.

   

   

"Producers are awaiting rains to enable them to initiate the seeding," the bureau said, adding that the harvest could be limited to 78.4 million tonnes - although this would still be more than the 72 million tonnes that the USDA has factored in.

   

   

Brazil''s corn output comes increasingly from the second of two annual crops that is planted in February after soys are harvested. Conab did not calculate the second 2013-14 crop and instead used the 2012-13 estimate of 46.2 million tonnes, and its forecast could change significantly in coming months.

   

   

The bureau also trimmed its 2013-14 estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop by 180,000 tonnes to 4.77 million tonnes, down from the 4.95 million tonnes seen last month. A July frost wiped out more than 50% of output in Parana state, where 26% of the crop has been harvested.

   

   

Even with the losses, Brazil''s wheat crop should be nearly 9% larger than the year-ago crop because farmers expanded area planted by 15%, Conab said.