January 13, 2014
US 2013 corn production lower than forecast
US corn crop harvested last fall totalled 354 million tonnes, a drop of 0.5% from last month''s estimate according to the USDA, which has surprised analysts, who had projected output at 357 million tonnes.
Corn yields averaged four tonnes an acre, the government said, down from its estimate of 4.1 tonnes in December and less than analysts'' expectations. The USDA trimmed its yield estimates for Iowa and Illinois, the largest US corn producers, but didn''t give a reason.
Last year''s corn crop was still by far the largest in US history, shattering the previous record of 333 million tonnes in 2009. The huge harvest, which came just one year after a severe drought battered the Farm Belt, triggered a 40% decline in US corn futures last year, making it the worst-performing US commodity.
The USDA also unexpectedly lowered its outlook for corn stockpiles at the end of the 2013-14 season in August by 9% to 41 million tonnes. Analysts had forecast the inventories estimate would rise to 47 million tonnes. The government boosted the amount of corn it expects to be used to feed livestock by 2%.
The USDA forecast higher-than-expected domestic wheat stockpiles in the season ending May 31. Wheat inventories were forecast at 16.6 million tonnes, up from 15.7 million projected last month, according to the government. The USDA increased its estimate for soft-red winter wheat stockpiles to 3.2 million tonnes from 2.4 million. Soft-red winter varieties are grown in the eastern Midwest and used to make animal feed and flour used in cakes and cookies.
US wheat prices have fallen 15% since the end of October amid forecasts for rising global production.
The USDA said US soy production reached 83.5 million tonnes last year on yields of 1.1 tonnes an acre, both slightly more than analysts had forecast. The figures were up from last month''s government forecast for 83 million tonnes on yields of 1.1 tonnes an acre.
Still, global soy production was pegged 0.7% higher than a December estimate, which is expected to boost world inventories by 2.4%, according to the USDA.