July 10, 2013
Brazil''s 2012-13 corn, soy estimates rise slightly
Conab, Brazil''s crop supplynationalagency, has raised its forecastof the country''s corn and soy cropfor 2012-13 slightly, after reporting favourable harvest conditions and ahistoric expansion in plantation areas.
The agency estimated corn crop at 79.1 million tonnes, up from its 78.5-million-tonne forecast in June, and lifted its view of the now-harvested soy crop to 81.5 million tonnes, from its 81.3 million tonnes forecast last month.
Brazil plants two corncropsper crop year, the bigger of which is now being harvested in the centre-west after expanded planting andadequate rain pushed it to a record output.
The harvest is developing well in all major producing states, Conab said. Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse poised to take on a larger share of the world''s food production in the coming years, will produce 8.4% more corn this season thanits previous record crop in 2012.
The soy crop is now harvested and largely exported, and Conab said it has increased its forecast by 200,000 tonnes this monthas rainfall during harvesting did not result in lossescaused byfungus, as previouslyexpected. Instead, yields in soy fields reached a record productivity average of 2.938 tonnes per hectare.
Brazil is expected to export 37.8 million tonnes of soy this season, up from 32.5 million tonnes shipped abroad last season, Conab said.
Corn exports will likely fall sharply to 15 million tonnes from 22.3 million tonnes a year earlier. Brazil tries to rebuild stocks after facing a shortage of corn used for animal feed in the drought-stricken Northeast earlier this year.
Conab also forecast a 2013-14 wheat crop of 5.61 million tonnes, up slightly from the 5.56 million tonnes seen last month. Brazil is often one of the world''s top importers of the grain. It normally relies on neighbouring Argentina for supplies but has been forced to increaseimports from the northern hemisphere as its southern neighbour faces a shortage. Brazil''s wheat harvest will not start for a few months and late rains, frost and disease often play a role in the final crop numbers.
Conab said Brazil will likely produce a cotton lint crop of 1.3 million tonnes in 2012-13, unchanged from a month earlier but down from the 1.9 million tonnes produced a year earlier.
The national cotton growers'' association said that Brazil will likely need to import some 200,000 tonnes of cotton to meet the needs of the local textile industry by the end of the year.
Conab will not publish estimates for the 2013-14 soy and corn crops until October, after they are planted. The USDA, however, is already predicting a fresh record soy crop of 85 million tonnes from Brazil as well as 72 million tonnes of corn next season.