Overview of the situation of propanil in China

Publish time: 6th June, 2013      Source: CCM
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  Domestic demand forecast
  Domestic demand for propanil is predicted to remain stable in the coming five years and the domestic market will consume about 400 tonnes (converted to technical 97%) per year. The demand structure of propanil by crop is expected to remain relatively stable in the next five years. Rice will still maintain its dominant position in propanil consumption in China.


  Supply forecast
  Domestic output of propanil technical is predicted to hit 2,000 tonnes in 2017 with a CAGR of 3.8% from 2013 to 2017, driven by the stable growth of overseas demand.


  Overview of export situation of propanil

  The total export volume of propanil rises sharply in 2012, especially that of propanil formulations. The total export volume of propanil technical is 600 tonnes in 2012, up 23.7% compared with that in 2011, while that of propanil formulations reached 2,072 tonnes (including 540 tonnes of 160g/L EC, 38 tonnes of 340g/L EC and 1,494 tonnes of 360g/L EC), about 2.5 times that in 2011.
  Propanil 160g/L EC and propanil 360g/L EC are the major export specifications of propanil formulations in China, with their export volume accounting for 78.4% and 21.6% of formulation export volume in 2011 and 26.1% and 72.1% in 2012 respectively. The export volume of propanil 360g/L EC is 1,494 tonnes in 2012, reaching its highest in recent years.
  Current price of propanil technical

  The ex-works price of propanil technical is between USD5,261/t and USD USD5,501/t in Mar. 2013. According to an industry insider, the price of propanil technical will undergo a slight increase because its use season is coming.


  Market demand

  Demand for propanil increased sharply during 2012, especially from the overseas markets. Over 75% of the propanil output is for export in 2012, hitting a record high of 1,240 tonnes (converted to propanil 97% technical), about twice of that in 2011. According to some industry insiders, the marketing of propanil in Africa has been successful and its demand will remain stable in 2013. The export volume of propanil to Africa is expected to reach nearly half of China's total propanil exports in the coming few years. It is expected that the price of propanil will largely depend on the demand from the overseas markets in the coming few years.


  Raw material price

  The cost of 3,4-Dichloroaniline, a key raw material of propanil, accounts for half of propanil's total production cost and the ex-work price of 3,4-Dichloroaniline has been growing in the recent five years.


  Narrow application range

  Propanil is an excellent chemical herbicide for controlling barnyard grass in paddy fields. However, its prevention and control range is narrow, so it's hard to increase its market demand. In such situation, little room has been left for its price to rise. In the future, the price of propanil will fluctuate slightly.


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