Summary: The global fertilizer market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 3% in 2025, and the Chinese market size will exceed 300 billion yuan, with compound fertilizer accounting for more than 40%. Green transformation drives the growth of demand for biofertilizer and slow-release fertilizer (share of 15%), and import quota adjustments may push up prices. The industry concentration has increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 60% of the market share, and international competition has intensified due to trade policies. Urea prices have stabilized, compound fertilizer prices may increase by 58%, environmental protection policies have eliminated 10% of backward production capacity, and the penetration rate of digital agricultural equipment will reach 30%. China relies on imports of potash fertilizers, and Southeast Asia and Africa have become key export markets.
I. Market Dynamics: Demand Growth and Structural Optimization
The global fertilizer market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 3% in 2025, mainly driven by global population growth and food security needs. As the world's largest fertilizer producer and consumer, China's market size continues to expand and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, of which compound fertilizers have grown significantly, accounting for more than 40%.
Key trends:
1. Green transformation: Environmental protection policies are becoming stricter, and the demand for new fertilizers such as biofertilizers and slow-release fertilizers is increasing, and the market share is expected to reach 15%.
2. Import quota adjustment: China’s fertilizer import quota for 2025 is set at 13.65 million tons (3.3 million tons of urea, 6.9 million tons of diammonium phosphate（DAP）, and 3.45 million tons of compound fertilizer), which may push up the price of imported fertilizers and prompt domestic companies to increase capacity utilization.
3. Regional demand differentiation: Henan, Shandong and other major agricultural provinces are still the main consumers of fertilizers, while the central and western markets have greater growth potential.
Table: China's fertilizer import quota allocation in 2025 (unit: 10,000 tons)
（Data source: CCM）
II. Competitive landscape: increased concentration and international competition
1. Increased industry concentration
The top 10 enterprises in China's fertilizer industry have a market share of over 60%, and leading enterprises such as Xinyangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley dominate the market. For example, Xinyangfeng's annual production capacity is nearly 9 million tons, and Yuntu Holdings' is 5.5 million tons. The industry integration is accelerating, and small and medium-sized enterprises are facing elimination.
2. Intensified international competition
U. S. tariff policy: Although not directly targeting fertilizers, adjustments to chemical tariffs may affect the supply chain, prompting companies to turn to markets such as Russia and Southeast Asia.
China's export adjustment: In 2025, compound fertilizer exports will be affected by international price fluctuations, and imports will depend on Russia, Norway and other countries.
3. Corporate strategy adjustment
Technological upgrade: Leading companies increase R&D investment and promote intelligent fertilization and water-fertilizer integrated technologies.
Channel sinking: Shift sales focus to county markets, strengthen agricultural services to enhance user stickiness.
III. Market data and policy impact
1. Price fluctuation trend
In 2025, the price of urea is expected to remain between RMB 2,200 and 2,500 per ton, affected by coal costs and policy regulation.
The price of compound fertilizers may rise by 58% due to import restrictions, and the premium for high-end specialty fertilizers will be even higher.
2. Industry changes driven by policies
Environmental protection and production restrictions: By 2025, the country plans to eliminate 10% of inefficient fertilizer production capacity and promote the industry's transformation to green production.
Digital agriculture: The penetration rate of intelligent fertilizer distribution equipment is expected to reach 30%, promoting the popularization of precision fertilization technology.
3. Changes in the international trade pattern
China's import dependence: Potash fertilizers are still dependent on imports (60% from Russia and Canada), while nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers are basically self-sufficient.
Export market adjustment: Southeast Asia and Africa have become key export regions, and export volume is expected to increase by 5% in 2025.
More information can be found at CCM fertilizer China Monthly Report.
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