In 2024, China's soybean imports reached a record high. However, the import structure shows an increase in other soybean imports and a decrease in non-GMO soybean imports. Looking forward to the subsequent market, China's soybean imports are expected to show a small decline in 2025, given that hog farming stocks may have reached their upper limit and soybean prices continue to be high.
Data show that in 2024, China's soybean imports were as high as 105.03 million tons, an increase of 6.51% compared with the previous year; total imports amounted to $52.7 billion, a decrease of 10.98% compared with the previous year. In terms of monthly data, soybean imports in most months of 2024 exceeded the level of the same period last year. This was mainly due to the decline in soybean prices on the international market, with record-high Brazilian soybean export prices dropping to new lows, which led to increased soybean purchases by China. In addition, in May 2024, Brazil's soybean-producing areas suffered floods, which blocked road transportation and lengthened the soybean arrival cycle in China, which in turn led to a delay in the centralized arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong. At the same time, China has also increased its soybean imports from the U.S. due to concerns about trade issues. Specific data show that from June - October 2024, China's soybean imports totaled 52.57 million tons, up 27.1% year-on-year. Among them, imports of U.S. soybeans from October - December amounted to 7.59 million tons, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year.
It is important to note that since 2022, Customs has adjusted the soybean import code. Against this background, the import volume of non-GMO soybeans continues to decrease, while the import volume of other soybeans rises year by year. 2024, the import volume of non-GMO soybeans was 928,000 tons, compared with 2022, a decrease of 45.16%; the import volume of other soybeans was 104.1 million tons, compared with 2022, an increase of 18.93%.
There are two main reasons for the change in the import volume of non-GMO soybeans. On the one hand, China's domestically produced soybeans are all non-GMO soybeans. In the past three years, soybean production in the northeastern producing areas has been increasing, but the price has been shocked downward, and the price difference between domestic soybeans and imported soybean arrival cost has gradually narrowed, which to a certain extent squeezes the import demand for non-GM soybeans. On the other hand, domestic soybean demand in some countries has increased, leading to a decrease in the number of their soybean exports. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, from 2022/23 to 2024/25, China's soybean production exceeded 20 million tons, at the highest level in more than a decade. 2022 to 2024, the price of domestically-produced soybeans oscillated downward, and the price difference with imported soybeans gradually narrowed, and the price-performance ratio of domestically-produced soybeans improved, which had a substitution effect on other products. In the past five years, Heilongjiang protein content of more than 39.5% of soybeans and imported Brazilian soybean arrival cost of the two price difference fluctuations in a wide range, from 58 yuan / ton to 2346 yuan / ton ranging, the average price difference of 1202 yuan / ton. 2024, the average value of this price difference of 627 yuan / ton, lower than the average value of the past five years.
Looking ahead to 2025, China's soybean imports are expected to decline slightly. Since December 2024, CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) soybean prices have emerged from the previous low range, and import costs have risen. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil and meal prices have also risen, which will inhibit the demand for soybeans in the end market, and will not be conducive to an increase in the volume of soybean imports. Comprehensive factors, it is expected that China's soybean imports in 2025 will be about 101 million tons, a slight decrease of 3.84% year-on-year. In terms of the non-GMO soybean market, the national production support policy will help keep soybean production running at a high level. At the same time, due to the soybean crushing and processing industry has a complete and mature industrial chain, as well as the base difference procurement and sales model, domestic soybean in these aspects of the substitution potential still has further growth space.
Source:CCM
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