中国乳制品月报

This month may mark a major turning point for the Chinese economy and thus the prospects of its dairy industry. During the current 13-day session of the National People’s Congress Chinese Communist Party chief Xi Jinping will formally take over the presidency from Hu Jintao, and Li Keqiang will succeed Mr. Wen as prime minister.

Fittingly, perhaps, the China Consumer Sentiment Indicator from MNI (part of Deutsche Boerse Group) rose to 94.7 in February, from 94.1 in January. MNI suggests that this shows consumers are increasingly taking a “wait and see” attitude toward the immediate future, pending economic and political updates after the new administration takes office this month.

The modest growth seems in line with the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, in which China was one of the positives in what the survey revealed to be an increasingly polarised region in terms of attitudes. “In Q4, China’s economy showed positive signs of a rebound with better than expected data for manufacturing, exports and investment which lifted consumers’ optimism for job prospects and personal finances in 2013,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater China.
 

This background should prove conducive to the continued progress being made in the Chinese dairy industry, some of which we report on this month. However it seems likely that consumers are also taking a “wait and see” approach when it comes to the overtures of the leading dairy businesses – the recent “warm marketing” campaign by Mengniu seems unlikely to allow consumers to forget that last year the same company was apologising after a batch of its “pure” milk products were detected to be contaminated by the carcinogenic Aflatoxin M1.