中国乳制品月报

Tomorrow China celebrates its National Day with the iconic red flag flown for the first time on 1 October 1949. At the time the design won out against competing designs after the hammer and sickle were dropped from the large yellow star which represented the party. Dairy is such a major theme in today’s China, one could speculate that perhaps a Holstein might have featured instead if the same Zeng Liansong had sat down to design that flag today?  

Many of our research and consulting projects centre on industry change – where are the opportunities for M&A? Which companies will make the most appropriate partners? Which customers are truly worth focusing on in depth?  

This applies worldwide but nowhere more so than in China. The Paris meeting of Global Dairy Platform at CNIEL in Paris looked at scenarios for the future in terms of what will impact on consumers’ decision-making, and came up with the neat summary that viewed consumers as either Thrivers, Strivers or Survivors. One could also think of the Chinese dairy industry in such terms – which companies will position themselves sufficiently strongly to emerge as winners by jumping a grade (say, from Strivers to Thrivers) in the restructuring which will characterise the industry over the forthcoming years? How will they achieve this – through building scale, niche marketing, strong partnerships with overseas players? This month’s review of recent figures from the main Chinese dairy processors suggests that at least 3 of the 4 are relatively well-placed in this respect, though the “jury remains out” on the smallest of the four.