中国乳制品月报

Welcome to the November issue of Dairy Products China News.

The supposed Chinese curse of "may you live in interesting times" could well be apocryphal and some suggest that the closest phrase to it is usually translated as "It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than a man in a chaotic period."

Fortunately, China’s future seems more likely to be interesting than chaotic under the new regime. This is not simply because the new leader’s wife, Peng Liyuan. A very popular local folk singer who secured international attention last year when she became a goodwill ambassador for tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS for the World Health Organization, she has the type of public profile never seen before amongst the spouses of Chinese politicians! Chaos is anathema to Chinese governments and, despite some evident areas of discontent, hard to envisage in a country where political change is being planned up to 20 years before it happens: Xi Jinping’s confirmation as the new leader lacks all the last-minute drama seen recently in the US.

The future should still be interesting though. Despite concern amongst China observers and the country’s citizens about its economy, so far the Chinese government appears to be pulling off the trick of maintaining economic growth but at a less breakneck pace. In essence it needs to stimulate domestic consumption and persuade its consumers to save less – ironically almost the opposite of what is required in the US.

Clearly, though, the new regime will not lack challenges. These range from tackling corruption and reforming the state-owned enterprises to addressing fast rising labour costs. In the region round Shanghai these are now close to the lowest in the US at around $6 an hour. China’s growth
has depended on exports to date but its cost advantage narrows every year.