中国乳制品月报

Welcome to the January issue of China Dairy News

The global dairy sector entered a new cycle in early 2026 amid a complex economic landscape. UNCTAD described the world economy as showing "fragile resilience" as inflation eases and monetary policy loosens, though growth momentum remains weak, with full-year expansion expected at just 2.7%. This low-growth, high‑risk environment, compounded by heightened geopolitical friction, has made trade‑policy uncertainty a persistent feature. Recent volatility in the US economy, including heavy selling of Treasury bonds, has further amplified financial‑market turbulence.

In terms of the Chinese market, policy support and industry cycle shifts resonate. In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5%, which was an impressive achievement; for 2026, the domestic real GDP target is set at 5%, with the fiscal deficit ratio set at 4%, and the first batch of USD8.90 billion (RMB62.50 billion) in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued, with 40% invested in the "livelihood and new quality productivity" sector, including infant nutrition, elderly-appropriate dairy products, and low-carbon dairy farm technology upgrades, all of which are included in the interest subsidy scope.

This issue highlights a dual upgrade for the dairy sector—both regulatory and product‑driven. The Market Regulation Administration's Dairy Products Production License Review Rules (Draft) are expected to take effect in June. Sanyuan Food launched its "Beijing Yogurt" on 15 January, coinciding with the release of the 2025 China Oat Milk White Paper, which charts a path for dairy companies to develop a second growth curve. With policy, standards, and market benchmarks aligning, China's dairy industry in 2026 is transitioning from scale‑driven competition to value‑focused evolution.