In 2015, glyphosate and paraquat, representatives of sterilant herbicides, are facing the risk of being
eliminated because of the stringent environment safety regulations. Which
herbicide will become the leading product in the future sterilant herbicide
market has become a focus of discussion among industry insiders.
Since the resistance to glyphosate has increased and many weeds including Canadian fleabane have high resistance, the 2015 glyphosate market remained depressed with price drops. The glyphosate technical price has declined to a historical low. The mainstream transaction price has dropped to USD2,844.75/t (RMB18,500/t). Many herbicide enterprises namely Zhejiang Wynca Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemical Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd. recorded significant falls in both their revenue and profit from their glyphosate business. In order to reduce the resistance to glyphosate, enterprises are mixing glyphosate with other selective herbicides like dicamba.
In 2015, paraquat AS was reclassified as a highly poisonous substance, which heavily impacted the depressed paraquat market. At present, the sales of paraquat are sluggish both at home and abroad and the ex-works price of 42% paraquat TK has fallen to USD1,845.25/t (RMB12,000/t). At the same time, the development progress of non-AS paraquat is also stagnant. For instance, the registrations of 50% paraquat SG (expiry date: 8 Nov., 2015) and 20% paraquat GW (expiry date: 25 Sept., 2018) from Shandong Luba Chemical Co., Ltd. and Nanjing Redsun Co., Ltd. respectively are unlikely to be renewed. Paraquat is likely to disappear from the market in China.
From 1
July, 2016, China will ban the sale and use of paraquat AS. Although the
Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China will still allow the
export of paraquat AS for paraquat TK manufacturers, the market share left by
paraquat AS will be filled by its competing products - glufosinate-ammonium,
diquat, glyphosate and some mixed formulations.
Glufosinate-ammonium
and diquat will become key products in the sterilant herbicide market, especially
the former. At present, many enterprises including Zhejiang Yongnong Chem. Ind.
Co., Ltd., Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. and Hebei Veyong Bio-Chemical Co., Ltd. are
investing into the glufosinate-ammonium market. The coming 5 years will be the
fast development period for glufosinate-ammonium.
However,
it will take some time for the glufosinate-ammonium market to completely open
up. High market price, extremely high production process standards, limited
output and environmental pressure are restraining the development of
glufosinate-ammonium.
Since
diquat is a similar product to paraquat, it will have good opportunities after
paraquat AS is banned. The next few years will also be the fast development
period for diquat. However, because diquat is similar to paraquat, it may
follow a similar development path to paraquat in the future. In any case,
diquat can obtain large market shares once paraquat withdraws from the market.
But how far it can go is still unknown.
CCM
believes that:
That
paraquat will withdraw from China's sterilant herbicide market is irreversible.
The
influence of glyphosate will weaken because weeds are becoming more resistant
to glyphosate.
In the
long term, glufosinate-ammonium is very likely to become the major product in
China's sterilant herbicide market since it is a good substitute for paraquat
and glyphosate.
Diquat
will become the major substitute for a while after paraquat AS withdraws from
the market.
To sum
up, in 2016, China's sterilant herbicide market will embrace a renewal because
of the big changes that happened in the market in 2015.
Ex-works
price of 42% paraquat TK and 95% glyphosate TC in China, 2015
Source:
CCM
About CCM:
CCM is the leading
market intelligence provider for China's agriculture, chemicals, food &
ingredients and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of
data and content solutions, from price and trade data to industry newsletters
and customized market research reports. Our clients include Monsanto, DuPont,
Shell, Bayer, and Syngenta. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more
information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by
emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling
+86-20-37616606.
Tag: glyphosate, paraquat, sterilant herbicides