Recently, the NATESC published detailed analysis of supply, demand and production trends of major crop seeds in China in 2015, CCM reports.
On 25 Nov., 2015, the National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center (NATESC) published detailed analysis of supply, demand and production trends of major crop seeds in China in 2015. The following is the summary.
1. Yield of spring & summer crop seeds in 2015
- Hybrid corn seeds
The actual seed production area and yield of hybrid corn seed were 228,000 ha (3.42 million mu) and 1.10 billion kg separately, growing by 31,333 ha (470,000 mu) and 86 million kg compared to that of last year.
Influenced by natural disasters, hybrid corn seed production did not increase as much rapidly as the production areas. Rare high temperatures raided main production areas like Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Gansu Province during key growth period and Yunnan Province suffered drought in April and May, and flood in July and August, causing yield reduction.
- Hybrid rice seeds
The actual seed production area of hybrid rice seed was 96,667 ha (1.45 million mu), increasing by 3,333 ha (50,000 mu) year on year and 239 million kg of seeds were yielded, up by 9 million kg year on year. Thereinto:
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Two-line hybrid rice seed: 34,000 ha (510,000 mu), 77.87 million kg;
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Three-line hybrid rice seed: 62,667 ha (940,000 mu), 160.68 million kg;
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Early rice seed: 18,000 ha (270,000 mu), 45.53 million kg;
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Mid-season rice seed: 58,000 ha (870,000 mu), 146.49 million kg;
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Late rice seed: 220,667 ha (310,000 mu), 46.56 million kg.
Overcast and rainy days, along with low temperatures affected Hunan, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Fujian provinces in pollination period, which led to yield reduction. Therefore, seed production area increased while seed output basically remained the same level compared with that in last year.
- Other crop seeds
The seed production area of cotton was 52,000 ha (780,000 mu) and the seed output was 75.32 million kg. Thereinto:
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Hybrid cotton seed: 1,333 ha (20,000 mu); 1.78 million kg;
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Conventional cotton seed: 50,667 ha (760,000 mu), 73.54 million kg.
The seed production area of conventional rice was 109,333 ha (1.64 million mu) and the seed output was 818 million kg.
Soybean seed reproduction area added up to 161,333 ha (2.42 million mu) and the output reached 372 million kg.
The seed production area of seed potato hit 297,333 ha (4.46 million mu) and 7,000 million kg of seeds were yielded. Main product areas of seed potato, Gansu Province, had a yield reduction of over 10% due to drought in summer and autumn. Besides, in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the harvest of seed potato encountered rainy weather, affecting the quality of seed potatoes.
2. Production and sales of autumn & winter crop seeds
- Winter wheat seeds
Winter wheat seeds harvested in summer have sufficient quantity and generally good quality. The market for autumn and winter wheat seeds was steady overall and the price was basically at the same level with that in the last year.
Market competition became strong in Shandong and Anhui provinces due to the cancellation of the unified seed supply policy. Seed price went down slightly and the commercialization rate dropped accordingly.
Wheat seed production area this year is 735,333 ha (11.03 million mu), 66,667 ha (1 million mu) less than that last year and 4.60 billion kg of seeds are expected to be yielded to meet next year's seed demand (planting area of winter wheat is expected to present a slight increase trend in 2016).
- Winter oilseed rape seeds
Affected by the reduced planting area, sales volume of winter oilseed rape seeds dropped distinctly and the retail prices did not decreased severely. Seed production area this year is 8,000 ha (120,000 mu), 2,667 ha (40,000 mu) less than that of last year and 11.35 million kg of seeds are expected to be produced. Thereinto:
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Hybrid seeds: 6,000 ha (90,000 mu), 6.67 million kg;
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Conventional seeds: 2,000 ha (30,000 mu), 4.68 million kg.
Under the new background that planting area of winter oilseed rape was cut and planting of winter oilseed rape produced less profits, it is estimated that demand for commercial oilseed rape seeds will be about 13 million kg. Total supply of oilseed rape seeds (including 3 million kg of seeds in inventory) is expected to surpass the real demand next year.
3. Demand and supply of spring & summer crop seeds in 2016
-Oversupply of corn seeds to be alleviated further.
Despite of an inventory of 750 million kg of seeds, the total supply of spring & summer corn seeds is expected to drop to 1,846 million kg in 2016 because major corn seed production areas suffered significant yield reduction affected by natural disasters in 2015 (seed output only hit 1,096 million kg).
It is expected that corn planting area next year will not decline significantly though purchasing price of corn was cut largely and planting structure of corn was adjusted. That's because corn planting still has advantages in planting and in economic benefits compared to other crops when market prices of all agricultural produce were declining. So, corn seed demand is expected to reach 1.15-1.20 billion kg in 2016.
It is predicted that the market price of corn in the spring of next year will keep stable, but a few middle-late season varieties with their outputs severely affected by natural disasters will climb up.
-Supply of hybrid rice seeds of different kinds to become divergent.
The year of 2015 saw a sluggish market of hybrid rice seeds. Seed enterprises struggled to digest their inventory.
The newly verified varieties promoted production of seeds—seed production area increased slightly and 239 million kg of seeds were produced this year, which means that seed supply in 2016 will reach 339 million kg (including an inventory of 100 million kg). It is predicted that the rice planting area will reduce slightly in 2016 and total demand for seeds for domestic consumption and for export will be about 250 million kg. So the total supply of hybrid rice seeds is sufficient in 2016.
Specifically, supply of three-line hybrid rice seeds will distinctly excess the real demand while the supply-demand relationship of two-line ones will be balanced and tight balance may even occur in Jiangxi Province and other provinces.
As new hybrid rice varieties do not have distinct advantages and planting area of conventional rice is enlarging, market prices of early rice seeds that have a tight demand-supply balance are not expected to have a significant increase. On the contrary, market prices of mid-season rice seeds may decline because severe oversupply makes some seed enterprises sell their stocked seeds at low prices before the seeds have to be sold as grains.
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Supply of other crop seeds to be sufficient.
a. Cotton seeds
Planting area of hybrid cotton in 2016 is expected to be 733,333 ha (11 million mu), demand for 4.20 million kg of seeds and that of conventional cotton is expected to reach 2.60 million ha (39 million mu), needing 88 million kg of seeds.
The total supply of hybrid and conventional cotton seeds are 4.78 million kg and 114.74 million kg respectively, which means that supply for cotton seeds in 2016 is sufficient.
b. Conventional rice seeds
The planting area is expected to maintain stable or even increase slightly, demanding about 660 million kg of seeds in 2016 and the seeds yielded this year are enough for the total demand.
c. Soybean seeds
It is predicted that planting area of soybean in 2016 will hit 6.13 million ha (92 million mu) and the total supply of seeds is expected to reach 330 million kg. Seeds yielded this year are also enough for the total demand.
d. Seed potato
As China promotes potato as a new staple food, planting area of potato is expected to rise and seed demand is predicted to be 53 million kg and seeds yielded this year can satisfy this demand.
If you would like to know more about the seed market, you could have a look at our product: Seed China News.
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Tag: seed, crop, seed demand, seed supply, seed production