April 29, 2015
Southern Africa''s food security threatened by lower corn harvests
After a good performance in 2014, Southern Africa may suffer a 26% slump in corn harvest this year, a development that could spike prices and threaten the subregion''s food security, according to the United Nation''s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Dominique Burgeon, the FAO''s resilience coordinator, warned that last year''s improvement in food security could unravel in 2015-16 if the situation is not mitigated in time. "Close monitoring is critical to trigger early action, reducing any negative effects on people''s food security and livelihoods. This is at the core of FAO''s efforts to build more resilient livelihoods," Burgeon said.
At around 21.1 million tonnes, the forecast for the region''s corn output is about 15% lower than the average for the last five years. Adverse weather conditions, specifically late seasonal rains during November-December 2014, flooding in some countries and a lengthy dry spell in the south during February-March, are blamed for the decline.
Chiefly affected is the Republic of South Africa, the subregion''s key producer and exporter, which is expected to bear a 33% dip from 2014. The percentage constitutes most of the total corn output in the subregion.
Also recording smaller corn harvests, compared to bumper volumes in 2014, are Malawi and Zambia, the second and third largest Southern African producers, respectively.
Other countries include Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.
Inflations, triggered by an anticipated shortage in corn, will induce the most impact on nations that are heavily reliant on corn imports. Namibia is such country that has witnessed rising prices in February.
For most countries, corn prices, buffered by adequate supplies, have stayed below the same period of 2014. However, supplies could suffer rapid depletions.
"The carry-over stocks from 2014''s bumper corn crop is expected to partly offset the impact of lower domestic production and somewhat contribute to stabilising national supplies in some countries," said David Phiri, the FAO''s coordinator for Southern Africa.
Moreover, this year''s weak output is likely to prompt rising imports in the subregion. The forecasts for aggregate corn imports in the 2015-16 marketing year (May-April) reveal a 1.8 million tonnes growth which doubles the volume of 2014-15 and one third above the average.
South Africa is expected to see the largest rise in imports which are mainly yellow maize used in the feed industry.
The positive trend also applies to Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland.