August 13, 2013
USDA lowers 2013 beef, pork and poultry production forecast
The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month''s forecast as a result of lower beef, pork and turkey production.
Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower than expected. The lower slaughter volume in the second quarter more than offsets the higher slaughter volume forecast for the second half of the year.
Pork production forecast is reduced, largely on a reduction in fourth-quarter slaughter. USDA''s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite a record number of pigs per litter during March-May, the pig crop for that period was only marginally above the previous year.
Broiler production forecast is unchanged while egg production is raised on higher table and hatching egg production.
For 2014, red meat and poultry production forecast is higher due to larger pork production. Pork production increases are driven primarily by gains in pigs per litter as producers have indicated intentions to only gradually expand farrowing in the second half of 2013.
Beef and pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged. The beef import forecast is lowered for 2013 and 2014 due largely to expected tight supplies in Oceania. Pork imports are raised slightly for 2013 and 2014.
Broiler and turkey exports for 2013 are raised on strong trade. Forecasts for 2014 are unchanged. Cattle price forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as prices have weakened recently.
The 2014 price forecast is lowered for the first half of the year. Hog prices are raised due to strong demand through 2013 into 2014, but price gains will be limited by higher production. Broiler prices are higher as strong demand is expected to support prices in 2014. Egg prices are raised for 2013 on relatively strong demand.