October 22, 2013
Brazil''s soy acreage may hit record in 2013-14 season
Brazil''s soy area in the 2013-14 season may become the largest ever planted, with production likely to reach a record 90 million tonnes asdomestic soy prices continued to rise in early October 2013.
The development takes into considerationaverage yield over the last three years.
Good liquidity and perspectives of favourable prices to producers- although lower compared to current- led producers to increase the planted area, thus decreasing corn cultivation. Conab (National Company for Food Supply) data released at the beginning of October indicated that Brazil may plant between 28.7 and 29.4 million hectares of soy in the 2013-14 season. Considering yield between 2,938 kg/hectare and 3,056 kg/hectare, Brazilian production mayreach between 87.6 and 89.7 million tonnes, for an increase from 7.5% to 10.1%, a record figure.
Conab projects that domestic crushing activities may resume increasing, to 40.7 million tonnes, but still lower compared to the total observed in 2010-11 (42 million tonnes). Conab also indicates a record soy exports volume of almost 46 million tonnes in 2014.
By-products processing activities might generate 28.7 million tonnes of soymeal and 7.3 million tonnes of soyoil in the 2013-14 crop, according to Conab data. Soymeal''s domestic consumption may total 14.3 million tonnes, the highest up until now, but exports might be limited to 14 million tonnes, while soyoil domestic consumption may total 5.8 million tonnes. It is also a record with exports of 1.4 million tonnes below the average over the last year.
In the Brazilian market, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for the soy delivered at the Paranaguá port moved up 3.07% from September 30 to October 15, and closed at US$33.81 per 60-kg bag on October 15. In the same period, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for soy, upped 3.1% and closed at US$33.35 per 60-kg bag on October 15.