December 11, 2013
Brazil could overtake US as top soy producer for 2013/14
Brazil''s government crop supply agency, Conab,reportedin its third monthly estimate on December 10 that the country''s soyoutput could reach 90.03 million tonnes, according to Reuters.
If confirmed, the crop would surpass last season''s 81.5 million tonnes by 10.5%, and Brazil could overtake US as the world''s top soy producer for the 2013/14 crop year. The estimated volume is near the top of its previous forecast of 87.9 million to 90.2 million tonnes.
Soy planting nationwide is about 95% complete, while the acreage expanded by 6.2% from a year earlier as farmers chose the crop over
corn.
Conab said irregular rainfall earlier in the season in the center-west region had given way to a good overall climate, as soy plants enter their growth and flowering stage. It alsoadded that the helicoverpa armigera, a caterpillar previously unknown in Brazil, drove up the use of pesticides among farmers in most producing regions, thus raising costs but not yet threatening output.
The agency also forecast that Brazil''s wheat crop would rise by 11% to 5.36 million tonnes, up from 4.81 million in November as a result of favourable weather conditions in the top producing state of Rio Grande do Sul. If the forecast is confirmed, Brazil''s wheat output would increase by 22.4% on-year, and slightly reduce the need for imports.
The surge in the wheat forecast came as a surprise asConab reported damage of crop from frosts in July, when harvest was already in its final stages.
The agency''s forecast of corn crop stayed at 78.8 million tonnes, in line with last month''s estimate of 78.5 million to 79.8 million tonnes.
Brazil briefly made it to the top as the largest exporter of soy and corn last season. However, the US is expected toresume the position as the top corn exporter in 2013/14.