August 23, 2013
South Africa may slash corn crop forecast
South Africa will probably reduce its forecast for output of the crop by 0.5 %, as farmers may reap 11.34 million tonnes of the grain.
This was according to a median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
This compares with the 11.4 million-ton forecast made by the Pretoria-based Crop Estimates Committee on July 25. The range was 11.2 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes. The committee will release its prediction on August 27.
South Africa''s output of cornhas been under strain because of insufficient rain in the main growing regions, including the Free State province, which produces about 40%.
Analysts and traders from BVG (Pty) Ltd., Senwes Ltd. and Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd. said this will lead to lower-than-average yields.
"My estimate is based on poor yields caused as a result of that drought we experienced earlier," Andrew Fletcher, an independent trader in Kroonstad in the Free State, said by phone.
The country produced 12.8 million tonnes in 2010, the biggest crop since 1982. Meal made from white corn, whose contract for December delivery gained 0.2% to ZAR2,349 (US$230) a tonne by the close in Johannesburg, is one of the country''s staple foods.
The yellow variety, which was little changed at ZAR2,199.20/tonne (US$214), is mainly used as animal feed.
Growers may produce 1.87 million tonnes of wheat, a median of three analysts'' estimates shows. This matches the final crop produced in the 2012 season, which was 7% less than in the 2011 period. The range was 1.87 million tonnes and two million tonnes.
Wheat plantings may cover an area of 515,900 hectares (1.27 million acres) this season, a median estimate of four traders surveyed by Bloomberg shows. This is 0.1% more than the 515,200-hectare prediction of last month and more than the 511,200 planted in the 2012 season, which was the smallest since the start of record-keeping in 1931. The range was 515,200 hectares and 555,000 hectares.
The nation, a net importer of wheat, is sub-Saharan Africa''s largest producer of the grain after Ethiopia and the region''s biggest importer after Nigeria and Sudan, according to USDA data.
Wheat for delivery in December gained 0.2% to ZAR3,355/tonne (US$327), the highest since August 2 by the midday close in Johannesburg.