August 13, 2013
Philippines'' corn production may decline in H2 2013
The Philippines forecast a 3% on-year increase in rice production even as corn output may decline in the second half of 2013.
In its latest forecast, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) reveals that
corn forecast for the entire 2013 is a 0.4% contraction to 7.375 million tonnes from last year''s 7.407 million tonnes. In the first six months of the year, production dropped 4.2% to 3.32 million tonnes from last year''s 3.47 million tonnes on the back of a contraction in the corn area and lower yields brought about by a dry spell in key producing areas.
For the third quarter, production is expected to recover, with increments of 2.9% in harvest, 1.4% in harvest area and 1.5% in yield per hectare. This is based on a 7% increase in standing crop from 2.43 million tonnes last year to 2.60 million tonnes this year. Likewise, harvest area is expected to increase from 906,800 hectares last year to 930,700 hectares this year, whereas yield per hectare may climb to 2.80 tonnes from 2.68 tonnes over the same period.
For the fourth quarter, farmers'' planting intentions point to a 3.8% on-year drop, as well as a 0.6% contraction in harvest area and 3.2% fall in yield per harvest.
"Cagayan Valley and Northern Mindanao might contribute significantly to the decline in production due to probable contraction in harvest areas. This could be attributed to the movement of harvest to the third quarter in Isabela and Quirino, and the shifting to pineapple and palm oil in Misamis Oriental," the BAS said.
BAS also says that palay (unhusked rice) harvest in the July-December period could increase to 10.46 million tonnes from the previous year''s 10.14 million tonnes. This is based on a 2.3% expansion in the harvest area from 2.65 million hectares in 2012 to 2.72 million hectares in 2013, as well as on a 0.8% increment in yield per hectare from 3.83 tonnes to 3.85 tonnes.
For the third quarter alone, the standing crop shows an 8.4% drop to 3.30 million tonnes this year from 3.60 million tonnes last year. The harvest area may have contracted by 8% from 947,000 hectares last year to 871,000 this year, whereas yield per hectare may have fallen by 0.4% from 3.80 tonnes to 3.78 tonnes.
For the fourth quarter, farmers'' planting intentions show a 9.4% on-year increase in production, given an 8.1% increase in harvest area and a 1.3% increment in yield per hectare.
"Except Northern Mindanao, all regions are foreseen to increase their production. Farmers are optimistic to plant due to interventions by the Department of Agriculture (DA) and local government units such as the Balik Binhi/Seed Banking, Sikat Saka, and crop insurance," the BAS said.
In the first semester, palay production climbed 1.3% from 7.891 million tonnes last year to 7.997 million tonnes this year. The BAS forecast a 2.3% increase in the full-year harvest from 18.03 million tonnes in 2012 to 18.45 million tonnes in 2013, or below the target of 20.04 million tonnes which the government set.