October 29, 2013
Brazil's 2013 corn acreage forecast down 13%
Over the past decade Brazil's corn production dramatically rose up to 90% which has allowed the country to more than quadruple corn exports.
But deteriorating economics will probably cause farmers in Brazil to reduce corn acreage for the crop that will be harvested in 2014. Analysts in Brazil say that rising production and transportation costs, coupled with lower corn prices have squeezed all of the profits out of corn production.
Safras e Mercado, a consulting group in Brazil, forecasts first-crop corn acreage down 13 % this year to 12.6 million acres. Acreage of second-crop corn will also be down- but probably by a smaller amount. Modern no-till practices require that land be covered in the winter- and corn makes more sense than most alternatives. But farmers that do plant corn will probably cut back on inputs, which could lower yields.
Brazil's corn production in 2014 is forecasts at 72 million tonnes by USDA, down from 81 million this past spring. But because of the huge carryover stocks from large crop harvested early this year, the fall in production may have only a modest impact on Brazil's 2013-14 exports.