February 5, 2014
EU 2014 rapeseed forecast up slightlydue togood weather
Forecast for the 2014 EU rapeseed harvest was raised slightly to 21.4 million tonnes this year by analyst Strategie Grains, citing good weather conditions in the 28-country bloc.
Rapeseed production in the EU is now expected at 21.4 million tonnes this year, up from the 21.3 million tonnes estimated last month and 500,000 tonnes above 2013 production, Strategie Grains said in a monthly oilseed report.
The upwards revision mainly concerned France, where the crop is now seen at900,000 tonnes higher than last year at 5.25 million tonnes, driven by a rise in the area sown. The 2013 French crop fell about 20% on-year after
crops faced poor weather throughout the growth cycle. In contrast, it cut by 100,000 tonnes in its forecast for this year''s EU sunseed production to 8.1 million tonnes, down 600,000 tonnesfrom last year.
On aglobal level, the analyst forecast a drop of one million tonnes in rapeseed output in the 2014-15 campaign to 67 million tonnes, with the sharpest drop in Canada after a record crop this season. In soy, the analyst pegged the 2014-15 global crop to gain 11 million tonnes from the 287 million tonnes harvested in 2013-14. This would include a five million tonnes rise in the US soy crop due to a 5% rise in the area sown to the detriment of corn, whose prices slumped this season. Global oilseed supply should grow despite higher demand, Strategie Grains said.
For the current 2013-14 season, the analyst raised its forecast of rapeseed imports in the EU by 300,000 tonnes, at3.3 million tonnes. Taking into account a 200,000-tonne upward revision to demand, reflecting good crush margins, the analyst raised its estimate of EU rapeseedstocks at the end of the season by 100,000 tonnes, at1.5 million tonnes.
The analyst said that Canadian logistical difficulties continue to dominate the rapeseed market, with very low exports in the first part of the campaign, which benefits exports from Australia, whose loadings are currently very high.