April 10, 2014
US 2013-14 corn stocks down, exports up
For 2013-14, US feed grain ending stocks are projected lower this month with reductions for corn, barley, and oats.
A 3.2 million-tonne increase in projected corn exports reduces corn ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong export sales and a rising weekly shipment pace for US corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand. US barley ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 152,000 tonnes lower with projected imports decreased and projected exports increased based on the pace of shipments to date. Oats ending stocks are projected 154,000 tonnes lower with feed and residual use raised 154,000 tonnes on higher-than-expected December-February disappearance as indicated by the March 1 stocks.
The 2013-14 season-average farm price for cornis raised US$0.10 at the midpoint with the projected range also narrowed to US$173 to US$189 per tonne, compared with US$167 to US$187 per tonne last month. The barley and oats price ranges are narrowed US$0.05 on each end to US$276 to US$285 per tonne and US$237 to US$243 per tonne, respectively. The June-May marketing year for barley and oats is nearing an end with most of the two crops already marketed and priced.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are raised 3.6 million tonnes with increases in foreign corn production far exceeding reductions for millet, sorghum, and barley. Revisions to coarse grain production for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries account for much of the change in world production this month. Notable changes, however, are made for several major producing and exporting countries.
Global corn production is raised 6.4 million tonnes with a 2.0-million-tonne increase for Brazil and 1.0-million-tonne increases each for South Africa and Russia. For Brazil, favourable precipitation in March and early April has supported the developing safrinha corn crop with yields now expected just below last year''s levels in the areas where this second-season corn crop is grown. For South Africa, improved rains in late February and March have boosted yield prospects for corn grown in the normally lower-yielding western areas. Corn production is raised for Russia based on recent revisions to official production statistics. Corn production is also raised 0.2 million tonnes for Mexico, in line with the latest government estimates.
Global coarse grain trade for 2013-14 is raised with higher corn and sorghum imports. Corn imports are increased for the EU, Algeria, Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam. In addition to the US, corn exports are increased for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam. Global corn consumption is higher with increases in feeding for Argentina, Russia, and Algeria. A reduction in EU corn feeding is more than offset by an increase in food, seed, and industrial use. Corn use is also raised for several of the Sub-Saharan African countries led by increases of 1.0 million tonnes for Uganda and 0.9 million tonnes for Ethiopia. World corn ending stocks for 2013-14 are lowered 0.5 million tonnes with reductions for the US and Ukraine outweighing increases for Brazil, Russia, and several other countries.