October 24, 2014
Rains shortfall cuts forecasts for Brazil''s 2014-15 soy output
The analyst group Oil World is least optimistic with its latest forecast for Brazil''s 2014-15 soy output.
It sees Brazil''s harvest in the next crop season to reach 89 million tonnes, an increase of just around 3 million tonnes over last season''s 86.1 million tonnes.
Oil World''s latest forecast-prompted by a shortfall of rain in the first three weeks of October, which caused delays in sowing-is more dismal than those of Lanworth, which pegs this season''s harvest at 98 million tonnes, the US Department of Agriculture''s forecast of 94 million tonnes, and Conab''s (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento or the national food supply agency) 90.6 million tonnes.
Early this week influential crop scout Michael Cordonnier also cut his forecast for total output by 1 million tonne to 94 million, still higher than the Oil World figure, due to the dry weather. Other forecasters are expected to also downgrade their figures.
"We expect downward revisions in the soy planting estimates and a lowering of the soybean yield forecasts to be announced by several observers in the next few weeks," Oil World said in a report released Wednesday.
It said the rain forecast for October 23-27 in some parts of Mato Grosso, the top-producing state, "will be relatively light and not sufficient to offset the severe moisture deficit registered in the first three weeks of October."
Forecasts for next week "point to ongoing very dry conditions in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Sao Paulo and Parana, stressing recently planted soybeans and delaying further the planting progress", it added.
"Overall, the situation will remain critical in most of Brazil this week and the arrears in soybean plantings will be severe as of October 27", the report pointed out.