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No. 0061P001 China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry  - Edition(1)

 

 

About This Report:

 

Report edition:  2009 edition(1)
Language version: English
Document type: WORD|PDF + Excel(Word or PDF document,with additional Excel Document)
For ready report --    
  Finished in: Nov 2009 ,edition(1)
  Total pages: 55
  Delivery: Delivery within 1-15 work days upon confirmation
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    -USD12500.00 for corporate license/site license
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  Delivery time: Delivery within 15-30 work days upon confirmation
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update report - update on request English - within 15-30 work days upon confirmation USD6500.00

 

 

Description:

 

Global hiking price of oil, as well as alarming energy crisis, push rapid development of renewable energies around the world, with solar energy an outstanding one. Driven by global booming solar energy, China’s solar cell production has developed rapidly in past three years, with output CAGR of 144% from 2007 to 2009. However, domestic supply of polysilicon, key raw material of solar cell, has heavily depended on import (78.46% in 2008), due to high cost and small output caused by immature technology.

Strong demand for solar cell and high profit rate attract increasing enterprises to engage in polysilicon production in China after 2007. Polysilicon output for 2009 is estimated to reach 12,500 tonnes and the supply in 2010 is expected to meet the demand with new capacity release. What’s the influence of this change will be exerted on China’s status in global solar PV industry? Will China’s soaring polysilicon output influence price or profit of international polysilicon manufacturers, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. and Huku Material Inc. What change will arise for China’s main polysilicon suppliers?

As overseas experiences demonstrate, sustainable development of polysilicon relies on solar PV advance, and the latter’s growth is greatly driven by governmental policy on feed-in tariff, thus a fresh focus comes to following outlook: what is China’s attitude towards feed-in tariff? Will China’s PV market still depend on overseas’ and how is the growing momentum in the following years?

Moreover, owing to lack of national long-term plan for polysilicon development, China’s polysilicon industry is facing many problems, such as overcapacity, lack of core production technology and ineffective technology in tail gas treatment, all of which have severely dragged sustainable development of polysilicon. With great technology breakthroughs in recent two years, what’s the potential change in the future?

This report will unveil penetration of above focuses, and to further explore these intelligences, key aspects will be presented as follows:

 What are reasons for rapid development of polysilicon industry?
 What are main problems in polysilicon industry?
 What is influence of latest policies on future polysilicon development?
 How does competitive landscape of different solar cells present?
 How does interaction between polysilicon and solar PV industry function?
 What are opportunities from future polysilicon industry?
 What are profiles of major polysilicon producers and end users together with discussion on their key business strategies?

 

Main Content:

 

No. Content
Page
Executive summary
1
Introduction and methodology
3
I Overview of polysilicon industry in China
5
II Soaring capacity and existent problems
8
II-1 Capacity and output
8
II-2 Key producers
11
II-3 Resources for polysilicon production
14
II-4 Main problems in polysilicon industry
16
III Influencing factors from government
18
IV Trade analysis on polysilicon
21
V Competition among polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon market in China
23
V-1 Polysilicon consumption situation
23
V-2 Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon
25
VI Market outlook of solar PV industry/Renewable energy industry
26
VI-1 Forecast on polysilicon production to 2013
26
VI-2 Position change of China’s solar PV
28
VII Market outlook of polysilicon in China’s solar PV industry
29
VII-1 Interaction between polysilicon and solar PV
29
VII-2 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar PV industry
31
VII-2-1 Development of China’s solar cell industry
31
VII-2-2 Consumption of polysilicon
35
VIII Competition and opportunity
36
IX Profile
37
IX-1 Key producers
37
IX-1.1 Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co., Ltd.
37
… …
IX-1.13 Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd.
49
IX-2 Key end users
51
IX-2.1 Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd.
51
… …
IX-2.7 Canadian Solar Inc.
55

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Exchange rate of USD against RMB, 2004-2009
Table II-1-1 Comparisons of Chinese and overseas polysilicon industries
Table II-1-2 Key foreign polysilicon producers, 2009
Table II-2-1 Domestic key active polysilicon producers, as of Oct. 2009
Table II-2-2 Domestic key potential polysilicon producers, as of Oct. 2009
Table IV-1 Import and export situation of silicon products under HS code 28046190, 2004-2009
Table V-2-1 Comparisons between polysilicon and non-crystalline silicon, as of Oct. 2009
Table V-2-2 Market share of non-crystalline silicon solar cell, 2006-2008
Table VII-1-1 Price of polysilicon and its unit cost in solar cell, 2005-2009
Table VII-1-2 Market share of solar cell with different silicon as raw material, 2008
Table VII-2-1-1 Domestic crystalline silicon solar cell production, as of Oct. 2009
Table VII-2-1-2 Domestic non-crystalline silicon solar cell production, as of Oct. 2009

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure II-1-1 Change of polysilicon capacity and output, 2002-2009
Figure V-1-1 Consumption situation of polysilicon, 2004-2008
Figure V-2-1 Output growth rate of polysilicon solar cell, monocrystalline silicon solar cell and non-crystalline silicon solar cell, 2002-2008
Figure VI-1-1 Forecast on polysilicon capacity and output, 2009-2013
Figure VII-1-1 Output growth rate of polysilicon and solar cell, 2002-2008
Figure VII-2-1-1 Output of polysilicon solar cell, 2003-2008
Figure VII-2-1-2 Forecast on output of polysilicon solar cell, 2009-2013
Figure VII-2-2-1 Consumption of polysilicon in solar cell, 2002-2008
Figure VII-2-2-2 Forecast on polysilicon output and demand, 2009-2013

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Executive Summary

 Production

Promoted by some key driven factors, China’s polysilicon industry witnessed capacity explosion in past three years. By the end of Oct. 2009, China’s polysilicon capacity has reached ****t/a, with output of **** tonnes in 2008.

Rising polysilicon industry is changing China’s status in the world, and will generate profound impacts on world’s polysilicon industry in the coming years. However, many problems, such as overcapacity, immature technology and tail gas treatement problem, have to be solved in the following years to ensure the sound and orderly development of China’s polysilicon industry.

 Government policies

Chinese government’s attitude, in the long run, towards polysilicon development is supportive, though it approved some proposals to curb excessive capacity and redundant construction on September 30, 2009.

 Trade analysis

In the past, China’s polysilicon consumption has been depending on import, and little was exported due to small output. However, with rising of domestic polysilicon supply, dependence on import will decline significantly in the next years.

 Consumption

China’s supply still can’t match its demand now, promoted by rapid development of solar cell industry in 2009. However, China’s polysilicon capacity has soared in recent two years because of government’s support policies and the fat profits of this industry, which have led to overcapacity in 2009.

 Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon

CCM estimates that polysilicon will still take dominant market share in the following years in PV market. Despite advantages in low product cost and low wastes, value of conversion rate/product cost of non-crystalline silicon solar cell still can’t catch up with that of polysilicon solar cell. Once price of polysilicon decreases to reasonable level and global economy recovers, which is happening now, development of non-crystalline silicon solar will become slow.

 Outlook of solar energy industry and renewable energy industry

With polysilicon’s increasing capacity and output, lower cost, higher conversion rate of solar cell, the status of solar PV will gain great improvement in renewable energy in next five years.

 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar energy industry

With immature technology, China’s polysilicon supply mainly depended on imported product before 2009 which hampered China’s solar cell development. Moreover, polysilicon’s high product cost caused by inefficient technology, restrained the promotion of polysilicon solar cell in China’s market, and China’s PV market developed slowly. However, this situation is changing now.

Domestic solar cell demand is determined by on-grid price and cost of solar power generation. Once these two problems are solved, domestic demand will increase considerably. However, based on current government’s attitude about the pricing for electricity from solar power and technology level of PV industry, installation capacity of solar cell will not increase much in the following *** years.

 Competition and opportunity

Future competition of polysilicon industry will be conducted from all the aspects. With more and more intense competition from overseas countries and domestic manufacturers, industrial integration will be the future trend. Moreover, banks’ cautious attitude in lending money to polysilicon manufacturers is actually an opportunity to investment institutions.

......

(The rest content of this report is omitted.)

Character of CCM' Report:

This multi-client report provides a comprehensive study on the researched subject in China, from aspects of production, technology, import & export, consumption & end uses, etc.

>>
 All the producers in China, either active or idled or potential, have been sourced and contacted. Their situation has been verified and compiled as in the appendix.
>>
 The competitiveness of Chinese production has been discussed in order to uncover the mystery of ever-increasing capability of Chinese manufacturing.
>>
 The import & export analysis for the situation in the recent three years has been conducted.
>>
 The consumption pattern of the researched subject has been carried out in order to breakdown the end uses into different segments. The major end users under each major end use segments have been identified.
>>
 The scientific methodology has been employed to conduct the quantitative forecast on this subject in the future 5-10 years.

The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way.

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