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No. 0019P038 Future of PVC Industry in China  - Edition(1)

 

 

About This Report:

 

Report edition:  2010 edition(1)
Language version: English
Document type: WORD|PDF + Excel(Word or PDF document,with additional Excel Document)
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  Finished in: Jan 2010 ,edition(1)
  Total pages: 197
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Description:

 

Driven by China’s rapidly developing economy in past few years, PVC industry in China has witnessed great development. Since 2005, China has been the largest manufacturer and consumer of PVC in the world, sharing about 30% global PVC output and consumption per year.

Different from most overseas countries, China adopts both calcium carbide method and ethylene method, since China has abundant calcium carbide resources. In 2008, PVC by calcium carbide method captures 70.74% of the total output in China.

After rapid expansion in the past five years, calcium carbide PVC has encountered great competition from ethylene PVC, especially after the price fall of crude oil since July 2008. How the dynamics of raw materials has affected PVC production in China? What is the production situation with these two methods in 2008 and 2009? What the trend of China’s PVC production and market in the next 10 years, especially for calcium carbide method, will be?

Though China is still a net importer of PVC, its import volume has reduced greatly after 2003. After the price slump of crude oil in 2008, has the import and export of PVC changed in 2008 and 2009?

Major driver for the increasing PVC output in China is the growing demand from downstream industries, whose development trend and PVC consumption in the next 5-10 years are provided with forecast in details in this report.

The report also covers following aspects of China’s PVC industry:
- Government regulations on PVC industry in China
- All PVC producers in China, especially for calcium carbide PVC, and their plan for future PVC projects
- Price change of PVC by the two methods in the past three years and its influencing factors
- Import & export analysis of PVC in the past 5 years in China
- Consumption pattern in different end use segments
- Resources analysis, covering coal, electricity and salt in China
- Comparison between calcium carbide method and ethylene method
- Ethylene production and general information of China’s petrochemical products, such as naphtha, gas oil, LPG and so on
- Investment opportunities in China’s PVC industry

 

Main Content:

 

No. Content
Page
Executive summary
1
Introduction and methodology
2
I Overview of global PVC industry
5
II Government regulations on PVC industry in China
8
II-1 Industrial policy
8
II-2 Environment policy
9
II-3 Threshold and tariff policies
10
II-4 Others
12
III PVC industry in China
13
III-1 Overview of PVC industry
13
III-2 PVC production
19
III-2-1 History of PVC production (2004~2009)
19
III-2-2 Future of PVC production, projects (2009~2019)
46
III-3 PVC Demand
42
III-3-1 History of PVC consumption (2004~2009)
53
III-3-2 Forecast on PVC demand (2009~2019)
61
III-4 Market analysis of PVC
65
III-4-1 Trade analysis in past 5 years
65
III-4-2 PVC price
75
III-4-3 Market by rigid PVC and soft PVC
80
III-4-4 Market by end use segment
81
IV PVC by calcium carbide method in China
94
IV-1 Production, by company
94
- History of PVC production by calcium carbide method (2004~2009)
94
- Forecast on PVC production by calcium carbide method (2009~2019)
95
IV-2 Producers
98
IV-2-1 Overview
98
IV-2-2 Introduction to Top 30 producers
99
IV-2-2-1 Xinjiang Tianye Co., Ltd.
99
… …
128
IV-2-2-30 Shanxi Yangmei Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd.
129
IV-3 Construction and future projects
131
IV-4 Raw material analysis
133
IV-4-1 Calcium carbide
133
IV-4-2 Coal and electricity
141
IV-4-3 Salt
149
IV-5 Cost analysis of PVC
151
IV-5-1 Cost of calcium carbide method
151
IV-5-2 Cost of ethylene method
154
IV-5-3 Comparison between calcium carbide method and ethylene method
156
IV-6 Forecast on PVC by calcium carbide method
158
V Petrochemical business in China
160
V-1 Ethylene capacity
160
V-1-1 History (2004~2009)
160
V-1-2 Forecast (2009~2019)
165
V-2 Supply and demand of petrochemical product
167
V-2-1 History (2004~2009)
167
V-2-1 Forecast (2009~2019)
167
V-3 Major petrochemical complex
169
V-3-1 Sinopec
169
V-3-2 Petrochina
174
V-3-3 CNOOC
179
V-4 Expansion plan of complex
184
V-5 Raw materials
185
V-5-1 Naphtha
185
V-5-2 Ethane
188
V-5-3 Gas oil
188
V-5-4 LPG
191
V-5-5 Condensate
193
V-5-6 Others
194
V-5-7 Trend and future
194
V-6 New technology and substitute
195
VI Conclusion
196

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 RMB exchange rates against USD, 1994-2008
Table II-1-1 Classification of enterprises in calcium carbide industry in China
Table II-1-2 Electricity price policy on high energy-consuming industry in China
Table II-3-1 Export rebate rate for plastics and plastic products in China
Table III-1-1 Properties and applications of PVC, PE and PP
Table III-1-2 Import, export and apparent consumption of PE, PP and PVC in China, 1998~2008 (‘000 tonnes)
Table III-2-1-1 Calcium carbide method and ethylene method in China
Table III-2-1-2 PVC production situation by raw material in China, 2006~2009
Table III-2-1-3 Ethylene import situation in China, 2006~2009
Table III-2-1-4 PVC production in different provinces in China, 2008~2009 (tonne)
Table III-2-1-5 Overview of PVC manufacturers in China-1
Table III-2-1-6 Overview of PVC manufacturers in China-2
Table III-2-1-7 Industrial concentration of PVC production in China, 2006~2009
Table III-2-1-8 Strategic reconstruction of key manufacturers in China, 2008
Table III-2-1-9 Geographic distribution of PVC production in China, 2006-2009
Table III-2-1-10 Distribution of PVC capacity with ethylene method in China, 2006-2009
Table III-2-1-11 Number of PVC manufacturers and average capacity in different provinces, 2006-2009
Table III-2-2-1 Planned PVC production of key active and potential producers, 2009
Table III-2-2-2 Assumptions of GDP growth rate in China, 2009~2019
Table III-2-2-3 Factors influencing PVC production in China
Table III-2-2-4 Forecast on PVC production in China, 2009~2019, ‘000 tonnes
Table III-3-1-1 Geographic distribution of PVC consumption in China, 2008
Table III-3-2-1 Assumptions of GDP growth rate in China, 2009~2019
Table III-3-2-2 Factors influencing PVC demand in China
Table III-3-2-3 Forecast on PVC consumption in China, 2009~2019, ‘000 tonnes
Table III-4-1-1 China’s PVC import origins, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Table III-4-1-2 Import volume and price of PVC in China, by province, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Table III-4-1-3 China’s PVC export destinations, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Table III-4-1-4 PVC export volume and price in China, by province, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Table III-4-3-1 PVC consumption in different end-use segments in China, 2008
Table III-4-4-1 Consumption situation of PVC in major end-use segments in China
Table III-4-4-2 Realty fixed assets investment in China, 2006~2009
Table III-4-4-3 Comparison among different insulating and wrap materials
Table IV-1-1 Industrial concentration of PVC production by calcium carbide method, 2006~2009
Table IV-1-2 Factors influencing calcium carbide-based PVC production in China
Table IV-1-3 Forecast on PVC production by calcium carbide method in China, 2009~2019, ‘000 tonnes
Table IV-2-1-1 Overview of top 30 PVC producers by calcium carbide method in China, 2009
Table IV-3-1 Construction and future projects of key PVC producers in China, 2009
Table IV-4-1-1 Top 30 producers of calcium carbide in China, 2009
Table IV-4-1-2 Capacity scales of calcium carbide producers in China, 2007＆2009
Table IV-4-1-3 Apparent consumption of calcium carbide in China, 2000~2008 (‘000 tonnes)
Table IV-4-1-4 Cost analysis of calcium carbide in China, Nov. 2009
Table IV-4-2-1 Top 50 coal producers in China, 2009
Table IV-4-2-2 Coal production cost in China, 2009
Table IV-4-2-3 Electricity generation from different energies in China, 2004-2008, Unit: billion kWh
Table IV-4-2-4 Top 30 large-scale power generation enterprises in China, 2008 (Unit: MW)
Table IV-4-2-5 Electricity price of key provinces in China, Unit: USD/kWh
Table IV-4-2-6 Cost of different energies to generate electricity
Table IV-5-1-1 Rough estimation method of PVC production cost by calcium carbide method in China, 2009
Table IV-5-1-2 Estimated profit of PVC by calcium carbide method in China, Nov. 2009
Table IV-5-2-1 Rough estimation method of PVC production cost by ethylene method in China, 2009
Table IV-5-2-2 Estimated profit of PVC by ethylene method in China, Nov. 2009
Table IV-5-3-1 Comparison between calcium carbide method and ethylene method
Table IV-5-3-2 General estimation methods for gross profit of PVC in China
Table IV-5-3-3 Marginal cost in production cost of PVC in China, 2007-2009
Table V-1-1-1 New ethylene capacity, 2009
Table V-1-1-2 Ethylene producers in China, 2005 ~ 2009, capacity: ‘000t/a
Table V-1-1-3 Unit capacity of ethylene facilities, 2003-2009
Table V-1-1-4 Ethylene supply & demand in China, 2000~ Oct. 2009, ‘000 tonnes
Table V-1-1-5 New ethylene projects, 2010 ~ 2020
Table V-2-1-1 Ethylene equivalent consumption, 2000~2009, Unit: ‘000 tonnes
Table V-2-1-2 Ethylene equivalent consumption, broken down by product, 2005 & 2008
Table V-2-2-1 Forecast on ethylene equivalent consumption, 2010, 2014&2019, ‘000 tonnes
Table V-2-2-2 Forecast on ethylene equivalent consumption, breakdown by product, 2010, 2014 & 2019, ‘000 tonnes
Table V-3-1-1 Employee structure by business department
Table V-3-1-2 Employee structure by education background
Table V-3-1-3 Financial data of Sinopec
Table V-3-1-4 Top ten shareholders of Sinopec Unit: 1,000 Shares
Table V-3-1-5 Output of exploration & mining of Sinopec
Table V-3-1-6 Output of refining segment of Sinopec
Table V-3-1-7 Output of chemicals products of Sinopec
Table V-3-2-1 Employee structure by business department
Table V-3-2-2 Employee structure by education background
Table V-3-2-3 Financial data of PetroChina
Table V-3-2-4 Output of exploration & mining of PetroChina
Table V-3-2-5 Output of refining segment of PetroChina
Table V-3-2-6 Output of chemicals products of PetroChina
Table V-3-2-7 Top ten shareholders of PetroChina Unit: 1,000 Shares
Table V-3-3-1 Employee structure by different region
Table V-3-3-2 Financial data of CNOOC
Table V-3-3-3 Production volume of CNOOC
Table V-4-1 Comparison of three companies'expansion plans

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure I-1 Global capacity, output of PVC and their growth rate, 2001~2008
Figure I-2 Capacity and output share of China’s PVC in global market, 2000~2008
Figure I-3 Growth rate of China’s and global PVC capacity and output, 2001~2008
Figure I-4 Newly-added PVC capacity and output in China and the world, 2001~2008
Figure III-1-1 Output of PE, PP and PVC in China, 1999~2008
Figure III-1-2 Output share of PE, PP and PVC among five common synthetic resins in China, 1999~2008
Figure III-1-3 Self-sufficiency rate of PE, PP and PVC in China, 1999~2008
Figure III-1-4 Dependence rate of China’s PE, PP and PVC on export, 1999~2008
Figure III-2-1-1 PVC production situation in China, 2004~2008
Figure III-2-1-2 PVC output and growth rate calculated by raw material in China, 2004~2008
Figure III-2-1-3 PVC output structure by raw material in China, 2004~2008
Figure III-2-1-3 PVC output in China, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure III-2-1-4 Geographic distribution of PVC capacity in China, 2009
Figure III-2-1-5 PVC capacity share in different provinces, 2009
Figure III-2-1-6 PVC output share of different provinces, 2008
Figure III-2-2-1 Planned PVC capacity share of different provinces in China, 2009
Figure III-2-2-2 Historical growth rate of PVC output, 2003~2008
Figure III-2-2-3 Forecast on PVC production in China, 2009~2019
Figure III-2-2-4 Forecast on PVC output with different methods, 2009~2019 ('000 tonnes)
Figure III-3-1-1 Apparent PVC consumption in China, 2004~2009
Figure III-3-1-2 Global and Chinese PVC consumption, 2004~2008
Figure III-3-1-3 Growth rate of GDP, PVC output and consumption in China, 2000~2008
Figure III-3-1-4 Consumption structure of PVC products in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-3-1-5 Consumption situation of PVC in window profiles in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-3-1-6 PVC consumption situation in pipes in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-3-1-7 Consumption situation of PVC in film in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-3-1-8 Consumption situation of PVC in artificial leather in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-3-2-1 Historical growth rate of PVC consumption, 2003~2008
Figure III-3-2-2 Forecast on PVC consumption in China in 2009~2019
Figure III-3-2-3 Forecast on PVC consumption in window profile in China, 2009~2019
Figure III-3-2-4 Forecast on PVC consumption in pipe in China, 2009~2019
Figure III-4-1-1 PVC import and export in China, 2004~2009
Figure III-4-1-2 Net import and self-sufficiency rate of PVC in China, 2004~2008
Figure III-4-1-3 Import origin for China’s PVC by volume, 2004&2008
Figure III-4-1-4 Export destinations for China’s PVC by volume, 2004&2008
Figure III-4-1-5 PVC import in China, Jan. ~ Oct., 2008 & 2009
Figure III-4-1-6 Import volume and price of four PVC products in China, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure III-4-1-7 Share of PVC import in different provinces, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure III-4-1-8 PVC export in China, Jan. ~ Oct., 2008 and 2009
Figure III-4-1-9 Export volume and price of four PVC products in China, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure III-4-1-10 Share of PVC export in different provinces, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure III-4-2-1 PVC price in China, Nov. 2007 ~ Nov. 2009
Figure III-4-2-2 Price of calcium carbide and calcium carbide PVC in China, Jul. 2005~ Nov. 2009
Figure III-4-2-3 Price of ethylene and ethylene PVC in China, Jan. 2007~ Nov. 2009
Figure III-4-2-4 Output, apparent consumption and price of PVC in China, 1998~2009
Figure III-4-3-1 PVC consumption in China by type, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-1 Consumption structure by end use segment of PVC in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-2 PVC consumption situation in construction industry in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-3 Total output of automobiles and private cars and their growth rate in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-4 Usage of PVC products in automobile exterior
Figure III-4-4-5 Usage of PVC products in automobile interior
Figure III-4-4-6 PVC consumption situation in automobile industry in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-7 PVC consumption situation in cable in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-8 PVC consumption situation in medical industry in China, 2002~2008
Figure III-4-4-9 PVC consumption situation in packaging industry in China, 2002~2008
Figure IV-1-1 PVC production by calcium carbide method in China, 2004~2009
Figure IV-1-2 Capacity share of PVC by calcium carbide, by province, 2009
Figure IV-1-3 Historical growth rate of PVC production and consumption by calcium carbide method, 2003~2008
Figure IV-1-4 Forecast on PVC production by calcium carbide method in China, 2009~2019
Figure IV-4-1-1 Production situation of calcium carbide in China, 2000~2008
Figure IV-4-1-2 Growth rates of calcium carbide and PVC’s capacity and output in China, 2000~2008
Figure IV-4-1-3 Output of calcium carbide and PVC, Jan. ~ Oct. 2009
Figure IV-4-1-3 Geographic distribution of calcium carbide output in China, 2008
Figure IV-4-1-4 Calcium carbide output share of different provinces in China, 2008
Figure IV-4-1-5 Consumption structure of calcium carbide in China, 2008
Figure IV-4-1-6 Prices of calcium carbide and PVC by calcium carbide method in China, Jul. 2005~Nov. 2009
Figure IV-4-2-1 Output and consumption of coal in China, 2004~2008
Figure IV-4-2-2 Prices of China’s anthracitic coal and Brent crude oil, Jan. 2008 ~ Nov. 2009
Figure IV-4-2-3 Output and apparent consumption of electricity in China, 2004~2008
Figure IV-4-3-1 Output and apparent consumption of salt in China, 2004-2008
Figure IV-4-3-2 Salt price in China, 2008
Figure IV-5-1-1 Production chain of PVC by calcium carbide method in China
Figure IV-5-1-2 Major production process of PVC by calcium carbide method in China
Figure IV-5-1-3 General production cost structure of PVC by calcium carbide method in China
Figure IV-5-3-1 Production cost of PVC in China, Jan. 2007- Nov. 2009
Figure IV-5-3-2 PVC gross profit with different methods in China, 2007~Nov. 2009
Figure IV-6-1 Forecast on calcium carbide base PVC in China, 2009~2019
Figure V-1-1-1 Capacity and output of ethylene, 2000 ~ Oct. 2009
Figure V-1-1-2 China’s GDP changes, 2000~2009
Figure V-1-1-2 Ethylene capacity share of different producers, 2009
Figure V-5-1 Raw material structure of ethylene in China
Figure V-5-1-1 Domestic consumption of naphtha, 2000~2008
Figure V-5-1-2 Import and export situation of naphtha in China, 2006~2009
Figure V-5-1-3 Ex-factory price of naphtha in China, 2007~2009
Figure V-5-2-1 Output and consumption of natural gas in China, 2003~2009
Figure V-5-3-1 Output and consumption of gas oil in China, 2004~2009
Figure V-5-3-2 Consumption structure of gas oil in China, 2008~2009
Figure V-5-3-3 Import and export volume of gas oil in China, 2004~2009
Figure V-5-3-4 Ex-factory price of gas oil in China, 2007~2009
Figure V-5-4-1 Output and consumption of LPG in China, 2004~2008
Figure V-5-4-2 Import and export volume of LPG in China, 2003~2008
Figure V-5-4-3 Ex-factory price of LPG in China, 2008~2009

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Executive Summary

As the largest common synthetic resin in China, Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), closely related to people's daily lives, is widely used in construction, automobile, medicals, packaging and so on.

Driven by rapid development of China’s economy in past decade, PVC demand has been continuously increasing, which has stimulated fast development of domestic PVC production. Especially after China has started levying anti-dumping duty on imported PVC since 2003, China’s PVC capacity began to soar and peaked in 2005. However, the expansion rate of capacity had been higher than the growth rate of demand. Therefore, Chinese government has started to regulate PVC industry through raising entry threshold and other measures.

Despite PVC output grew at CAGR of XXX% in the past five years, peaking at XXX tonnes in 2007, China is sill a net importer of PVC as homemade PVC cannot meet the requirement of some downstream industries that demand high quality PVC, mainly produced with ethylene method.

As for consumption, China’s PVC consumption increased at CAGR of XXX% in 2004~2008, peaking at XXX tonnes in 2007. PVC consumption structure has witnessed some changes in past few years: rigid PVC products consumed in pipe, window profile and plate is increasing; soft PVC products used in film, cable and shoes is dropping gradually. In the future, PVC will continue to enjoy bright prospect in consumption fields like window profile, pipe and plate thanks to prospering real estate industry.

Different from most overseas countries, one important feature of Chinese PVC industry is the coexistence of two production methods, namely calcium carbide method and ethylene method. Calcium carbide method is the major method adopted, with its output share reaching XXX% of China’s total in 2008, mainly because of China’s rich coal resource and poor crude oil resource

However, application of these methods has always been changing depending on the varied production cost. When crude oil price is high, manufacturers mainly adopt calcium carbide method with relatively low production cost. However, as crude oil price slumped after global finical crisis occurred, production cost of ethylene method is lower than that of calcium carbide method. Coupled with the slack demand from downstream industries, domestic manufacturers adopting calcium carbide method to stop or suspend production.

In China, raw materials to produce ethylene include naphtha, HCTO, gas oil in China and little LPG, ethane or condensate are used. Naphtha is major one and it has seen rising share in consumption of PVC’s raw materials in past decade. Currently, ethylene can just meet the demand from downstream industries in China under the condition that China’s GDP grows at about XXX%, though its capacity has been expanding fast in recent years. But self-sufficient rate of ethylene equivalents is quite low, below XXX% in 2009.

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Character of CCM' Report:

This multi-client report provides a comprehensive study on the researched subject in China, from aspects of production, technology, import & export, consumption & end uses, etc.

>>
 All the producers in China, either active or idled or potential, have been sourced and contacted. Their situation has been verified and compiled as in the appendix.
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 The competitiveness of Chinese production has been discussed in order to uncover the mystery of ever-increasing capability of Chinese manufacturing.
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 The import & export analysis for the situation in the recent three years has been conducted.
>>
 The consumption pattern of the researched subject has been carried out in order to breakdown the end uses into different segments. The major end users under each major end use segments have been identified.
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 The scientific methodology has been employed to conduct the quantitative forecast on this subject in the future 5-10 years.

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